chapter  11
The Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger 2017
A New Methodology and Ranking of Countries on Forecasted Risks
ByDavid A. Backer, Jacob Aronson, Paul K. Huth
Pages 41

The Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger (PCIL) consists of country-level assessments of the likelihood of observing phenomena with significant potential to disrupt governmental functions, including the ability to exercise meaningful authority and to deliver core services. The Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM) at the University of Maryland developed the original version of the PCIL in 2008 (Hewitt 2008). 1 Ever since, CIDCM has compiled the PCIL on an annual basis. In 2015, CIDCM redesigned the PCIL methodology, markedly improving the quality and utility of this resource. The new methodology was enhanced in 2016. The analysis now yields separate forecasts of the risk of adverse regime change, internal war, state-based mass killing, and non-state mass killing, as well as the overall risk of observing any of these phenomena. The forecasts are based on estimations of models tailored to account for the particular nature of each of these types of instability, using the most recent available empirical data and state-of-the art statistical techniques.