ABSTRACT
This chapter analyses the alliance's conventional deterrence posture. It sketches the role of conventional forces during the Cold War, when deterrence was primarily nuclear. The chapter analyses the threat posed by Russia to North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in the Baltic region. It discusses the way forward and the issues that will, or should be, addressed at the alliance's Brussels summit in 2018, in order to establish credible conventional deterrence against Russia' threat. In order to assess NATO's conventional deterrence posture in the Baltic region, it is critical to understand that the Russian threat is, first and foremost, a political threat to allied cohesion. Every debate on NATO's conventional deterrence remains artificial to a degree if focused only on NATO-assigned or earmarked forces. Since the very first day after the beginning of the Ukraine crisis, NATO, through its Wales and Warsaw summits, has been seeking conventional solutions for how to deter Russia on its Eastern front.
