ABSTRACT
Historically, black employment rates have been more sensitive to the business cycle, rising disproportionately during expansions and falling disproportionately during contractions. Official unemployment rates can decline because employment rates rise, or because labor force participation rates decline. Chinhui Juhn has documented that racial differences in labor force participation rates among men is substantially the result of a lack of employment opportunities, particularly for black men seeking employment in low-wage labor markets. The alternative measure uses the actual black employment rate but assumes that the "true" black labor force participation rate equals the white rate. With the weakening of affirmative action and the labor market impact of welfare changes, it is quite important to assess the prospects for black men in an economy with high labor demand. The chapter suggests that as labor markets tighten, it may be unlikely that the disproportional benefits black male workers experience during economic expansions continue.
