ABSTRACT
Economists and other users of economic information have been dissatisfied with the precision of economic forecasts. It is inherently difficult to make usable economic forecasts for guidance to decision makers. In this essay, the present state of economic forecasting is considered, in the light of some important past events that required the use of attempts to look ahead — often in a phase of postwar planning, such as the situation that prevailed after World War II or in similar episodes that confronted US analysts who were responsible for forecasting the economy in a significantly changed environment. This paper is offered as an attempt to build on past efforts, but to look ahead by drawing on the latest developments in information technology—to harness the power of the computer, access the enlarged flow of economic information, and to process the flow with very quick response It is felt that definite improvements in accuracy can be attained, not by an order of magnitude but by a few percentage points at a time.
