ABSTRACT

In this chapter, it is argued that superficial factors, such as mobilization and dissatisfaction with President Ma’s style, cannot account for the massive shift of voters away from the KMT. Instead, the election turned on more fundamental shifts related to the continuing growth of Taiwan identity. Ma managed to hold the old KMT majority coalition together one last time in 2012, but this coalition fractured during his second term. Large numbers of erstwhile Ma supporters shifted sides. Some turned to James Soong and the People’s First Party (PFP). More importantly, the data suggest that these voters switched sides for reasons related to the identity cleavage. If that is the case, it will be much harder for the KMT to win them back. Doing so would require them to either change their minds about their identities or to make basic and painful revisions to the KMT’s core principles. More likely, these voters have permanently shifted sides and will be part of the DPP’s coalition in the future.