ABSTRACT
This chapter argues that it is not possible to predict what the CCP’s future Taiwan policy will be, it is not a trivial factor that China, since 1950, has never tried to capture Taiwan. This reality suggests that there is something not quite right with the assumption that the leaders of the CCP have always imagined Taiwan as sacred Chinese territory that must be seized for PRC rulers to appear as legitimate patriots. This chapter explains why seizing Taiwan has in fact not been a passionate patriotic priority for the CCP, apart from neo-Maoist hawks who do talk more about China incorporating Taiwan. This newly risen force could yet opt to risk war with America and use the PRC’s military to attack Taiwan under President Tsai. But such CCP aggression would reflect a major post-Mao, post-Deng, war-prone rupture in CCP attitudes and policy. Mao never tried to invade Taiwan after the invasion of South Korea by North Korea backed by Mao had turned Taiwan into an American ally. Mao prioritized avoiding war with the US over annexing Taiwan.
