ABSTRACT
This chapter considers how the impact of technological change on urban form can be forecast using a computer model of a city, demonstrates the use of a particular example to do so, and assesses the results from the exercise. A number of urban models have been developed over the past 25 years. A group of these may be characterised as integrated land use transport models. One such model is the Leeds Integrated Land Use Transport (LILT) model, developed at the Institute for Transport Studies, University of Leeds. The model is used to make conditional predictions by making a 'base' or 'most likely future' forecast using the best estimates of what is expected to occur over the period being considered, and then making a forecast representing the change being considered. Any such model could be used for this purpose provided that the technological change can be represented by suitable modifications to the model inputs.
