ABSTRACT
This chapter demonstrates and evaluates whether leading indicators can be used to anticipate stock price activity. It shows that the National Bureau of Economic Research methods, which have been extended and refined by Geoffrey H. Moore, can be applied to specific financial market analysis. The analysis is also extended to demonstrate an analytical system for calling turning points and predicting the likely amplitude change in stock price activity. The evolution of leading economic indicator methods and empirical business cycle research by Geoffrey Moore naturally leads to specific applications of these techniques to the financial markets. The basic pattern of the stock market cycle can be demonstrated using the Mitchell-Burns stages of the cycle. When the stock market enters a bear market, stock market losses are relatively small but get increasingly larger until the trough of the cycle is reached. Still another approach to forecasting the future path of stock prices was undertaken by Geoffrey Moore.
