ABSTRACT

This chapter examines the relationship between crime and United Kingdom (UK) macroeconomic aggregates in the context of quarterly crime data. The nature of any relationship between aggregate crime and the economy is of wide interest in both academic and policy-making areas. S. Field considers twelve categories of crime together with a number of economic indicators, demographic and weather variables. The most extensive UK data are those from the British Crime Surveys, which have been conducted since 1982. The British Crime Surveys also throw some doubt on the accuracy of the police crime statistics used in time series studies. The chapter considers four categories of crime, namely burglary, theft and handling of stolen goods, criminal damage and personal crime. It explains the long-run relationships between the major crime aggregates and macroeconomic variables. The chapter turns to short-run relationships: in particular, examines evidence for an asymmetric effect of movements in unemployment on crime.