ABSTRACT
Smoking behavior can be modeled using an Epidemic Modeling of Social Activities (EMOSA) approach. The approach borrows from both the mathematics of epidemic disease and that of the diffusion of social innovations to describe how naive nonsmokers become first experimental smokers and then regular smokers. In some models, the possibilities of quitting and relapse are also included. The models consist of difference equations that predict the prevalence of individuals at each smoking stage. In their application to data on smoking, two main discoveries have emerged. The first is that the transition from naive nonsmoker to experimental smoker requires social contacts; in the model’s terminology, it is a prevalence-driven transition. In contrast, social influence had little effect on the transition from experimental smoker to regular smoker. EMOSA models were also applied to the spread of cigarette smoking among Hispanic and Black females. The models particularly suggested that Black girls are less susceptible to psychological or physiological addiction to nicotine.
