ABSTRACT
Climate Change (IPCC), representing the published results of leading climatological modeling groups around the world, forecasts that global mean temperatures will continue to rise over the twenty-rst century if GHG emissions continue unabated. e panel makes their predictions based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs). RCPs are four GHG concentration trajectories adopted by the IPCC for its h assessment report (AR5). ey describe four possible climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much GHGs are emitted in the years to come. e four RCPs (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5) are named aer a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 (+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2, respectively) [45]. Radiative forcing describes the dierence of radiant energy received by the Earth and energy radiated back to space. Under the assumptions of the concentration-driven RCPs and with respect to preindustrial conditions, global temperatures averaged in the period 2081-2100 are projected to likely exceed 1.5°C above preindustrial values for RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 (high condence) and are likely to exceed 2°C above preindustrial for RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 (high condence) [43] as shown in Figure 77.1 [1].
