ABSTRACT
Agriculture is an essential component of societal well-being. Feeding an increasing human population, expected to reach 9.3 billion in 2050 (United Nations, 2011), and combating hunger and poverty worldwide remains a tremendous challenge. Producing and distributing food is also increasingly vulnerable to interconnected risks and impacts due to extreme climatic events, harmful environmental pressures and socio-economic volatility. Today’s rapid communication and globalization of trade increase the potential for high volatility in commodity pricing from economic disturbances and shocks. This is, in part, due to less constrained, open market-based valuation of major agriculturalbased food, feed, fiber, and bioenergy products. There is also, however, a need to better understand crop production risks and commodity price fluctuations. Forecast models of crop yield and production can help to better design risk averse market regulation, trade and policy strategies and instruments that have a higher success of achieving and sustaining global food security.
