ABSTRACT
Abstract. In this chapter, I explore population dynamics of sea ducks by developing population models. In determining which life history characteristics had the greatest inuence on future population dynamics, adult female survival consistently had the highest sensitivity and elasticity and this result was robust across a wide range of life history parameter values. Conversely, retrospective models consistently found that the majority of annual variation in λ was associated with variation in productivity. Stochastic models that are based on process variation and incorporate correlations among life history parameters are the most useful for visualizing the probability of achieving a desired management outcome. Effective management
targets both the mean and the variance of parameters and takes advantage of correlations among life history parameters. Example models demonstrate that sea duck species can achieve equal tness using a variety of survival and productivity combinations. Sea duck populations will tend to have long time lags in terms of responding to management actions. Understanding the role of density-dependent population regulation is critical for effective sea duck management and conservation.
