chapter  17
4 Pages

Conclusion

ByPaul Upham, Stefan Gössling

It is tempting to subtitle this conclusion: where do we go from here? As the chapters in this book have shown that absolute reductions in greenhouse gas emissions will only be possible if growth in aviation is reduced, the answers to this question will tend to vary according to how an actor or stakeholder expects their economic interests to be affected by such a scenario. Those supportive of the technologically improved status quo tend, not surprisingly, to represent industry positions. These stakeholders perceive that they have much to lose from any reduction in growth. They tend to have national government support and generally point to the ambitious technological targets that the industry has set for itself. A notable example is the Sustainable Aviation initiative (www.sustainableaviation.co.uk/), which represents over 90 per cent of UK airlines, airports and air navigation service providers, as well as all major UK aerospace manufacturers (Sustainable Aviation, 2006). This grouping sees the inclusion of aviation in EU ETS as ‘an important step towards a broader international agreement to address aviation emissions’, and states that the industry is on track to meet the ACARE (Advisory Council for Aeronautics Research in Europe) improvement targets for fuel burn, noise, and nitrogen oxides (NOx) of 50, 50 and 80 per cent respectively, for new aircraft in 2020 compared with their equivalents in 2000. They also note that alternatives to aviation kerosene, such as biofuels, continue to be assessed (Sustainable Avaiation, 2006). Those without a direct economic interest in the aviation industry may still perceive a substantial indirect interest in aviation growth – for example, local and regional authorities with airports in their locality.