Future Climate Scenarios
Several climate change scenarios for Bangladesh have been published in recent years. Agrawala et al (2003) examined the performance of 17 global climate models (GCMs)1 over Bangladesh during the 20th century, then used several topperforming models to simulate future climate using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) B2 emissions scenario (SRES, 2000).2 The resulting mean annual temperature changes were 1.4ºC by 2050 and 2.4ºC by 2100, with higher increases in the wintertime. Annual precipitation rose by 5.6 per cent by 2050 and 9.7 per cent by 2100, with indications of winter drying and summer rainfall increases. These projected seasonal changes are consistently found across many studies of the South Asian monsoon region.