Evaluating Climate Change Impacts discusses assessing and quantifying climate change and its impacts from a multi-faceted perspective of ecosystem, social, and infrastructure resilience, given through a lens of statistics and data science. It provides a multi-disciplinary view on the implications of climate variability and shows how the new data science paradigm can help us to mitigate climate-induced risk and to enhance climate adaptation strategies.

This book consists of chapters solicited from leading topical experts and presents their perspectives on climate change effects in two general areas: natural ecosystems and socio-economic impacts. The chapters unveil topics of atmospheric circulation, climate modeling, and long-term prediction; approach the problems of increasing frequency of extreme events, sea level rise, and forest fires, as well as economic losses, analysis of climate impacts for insurance, agriculture, fisheries, and electric and transport infrastructures. The reader will be exposed to the current research using a variety of methods from physical modeling, statistics, and machine learning, including the global circulation models (GCM) and ocean models, statistical generalized additive models (GAM) and generalized linear models (GLM), state space and graphical models, causality networks, Bayesian ensembles, a variety of index methods and statistical tests, and machine learning methods. The reader will learn about data from various sources, including GCM and ocean model outputs, satellite observations, and data collected by different agencies and research units. Many of the chapters provide references to open source software R and Python code that are available for implementing the methods.

part Part I|162 pages

Ecosystem Impacts

chapter 1|22 pages

On Evaluation of Climate Models

ByKaibo Gong, Snigdhansu Chatterjee

chapter 2|19 pages

A Statistical Analysis of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Changes

ByThomas J. Fisher, Robert Lund, Michael W. Robbins

chapter 3|19 pages

Fire-Weather Index and Climate Change

ByZuzana Hubnerova, Sylvia Esterby, Steve Taylor

chapter 4|22 pages

Probabilistic Projections of High-Tide Flooding for the State of Maryland in the Twenty-First Century

ByMing Li, Fan Zhang, Yijun Guo, Xiaohong Wang

chapter 6|15 pages

Using Structural Comparisons to Measure the Behavior of Complex Systems

ByRyan E. Langendorf

chapter 7|24 pages

Causality Analysis of Climate and Ecosystem Time Series

ByMohammad Gorji Sefidmazgi, Ali Gorji Sefidmazgi

part Part II|218 pages

Socioeconomic Impacts

chapter 10|33 pages

Financing Weather and Climate Risks in the United States

ByRoger S. Pulwarty, David R. Easterling, Jeffery Adkins, Adam B. Smith

chapter 11|23 pages

Extreme Events, Population, and Risk: An Integrated Modeling Approach

ByLelys Bravo de Guenni, Desireé Villalta, Andrés Sajo-Castelli

chapter 12|18 pages

Aspects of Climate-Induced Risk in Property Insurance

ByOla Haug

chapter 13|29 pages

Climate Change Impacts on the Nation's Electricity Sector

ByCraig D. Zamuda

chapter 14|18 pages

Impacts of Inclement Weather on Traffic Accidents in Mexico City

BySophie Bailey, S. Marcelo Olivera-Villarroel, Vyacheslav Lyubchich

chapter 15|21 pages

Statistical Modeling of Dynamic Greenhouse Gas Emissions

ByNathaniel K. Newlands

chapter 17|18 pages

Poppy Cultivation and Eradication in Mexico, 2000–2018: The Effects of Climate

ByS. Marcelo Olivera-Villarroel, Maria del Pilar Fuerte Celis