Behavioral decision research offers a distinctive approach to understanding and improving decision making. It combines theory and method from multiple disciples (psychology, economics, statistics, decision theory, management science). It employs both empirical methods, to study how decisions are actually made, and analytical ones, to study how decisions should be made and how consequential imperfections are. This book brings together key publications, selected to represent the major topics and approaches used in the field. Put in one place, with integrating commentary, it shows the common elements in a research program that represents the scope of the field, while offering depth in each. Together, they provide a vision for what has become a burgeoning field.

part I|29 pages


chapter 1|20 pages

Judgment and Decision Making

chapter 2|7 pages

Tversky, Amos (1937–96)

part II|38 pages

Hindsight bias

chapter 3|17 pages

Hindsight ≠ Foresight

The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty

chapter 4|15 pages

For those Condemned to Study the Past

Reflections on historical judgment

part III|111 pages


chapter 7|21 pages

Knowing with Certainty

The appropriateness of extreme confidence

chapter 8|22 pages

Fault Trees

Sensitivity of estimated failure probabilities to problem representation

part IV|66 pages


chapter 11|23 pages

Predicting Frames

chapter 12|25 pages

Value Elicitation

Is there anything in there?

part V|96 pages


chapter 14|23 pages

Giving Advice

Decision theory perspectives on sexual assault

chapter 15|28 pages

The Real World

What good is it?

chapter 17|23 pages

Questions of Competence

The duty to inform and the limits to choice

chapter |3 pages