In this book, senior scholars and a new generation of analysts present different applications of recent advances linking beliefs and decision-making, in the area of foreign policy analysis with strategic interactions in world politics.

Divided into five parts, Part 1 identifies how the beliefs in the cognitive operational codes of individual leaders explain the political decisions of states. In Part 2, five chapters illustrate progress in comparing the operational codes of individual leaders, including Vladimir Putin of Russia, three US presidents, Bolivian president Evo Morales, Sri Lanka’s President Chandrika Kumaratunga, and various leaders of terrorist organizations operating in the Middle East and North Africa. Part 3 introduces a new Psychological Characteristics of Leaders (PsyCL) data set containing the operational codes of US presidents from the early 1800s to the present. In Part 4, the focus is on strategic interactions among dyads and evolutionary patterns among states in different regional and world systems. Part 5 revisits whether the contents of the preceding chapters support the claims about the links between beliefs and foreign policy roles in world politics.

Richly illustrated and with comprehensive analysis Operational Code Analysis and Foreign Policy Roles will be of interest to specialists in foreign policy analysis, international relations theorists, graduate students, and national security analysts in the policy-making and intelligence communities.

part I|41 pages

Beliefs and Roles in World Politics

chapter 2|25 pages

The Development of Foreign Policy Roles

Beliefs and Complex Adaptive Systems

part II|106 pages

The Operational Codes of World Leaders

chapter 4|24 pages

Deciphering Deadly Minds in Their Native Language

The Operational Codes and Formation Patterns of Militant Organizations in the Middle East and North Africa

chapter 6|18 pages

Policy Documents and the Beliefs of Foreign Policy Decision-Makers

A Next Step in Operational Code Analysis

chapter 7|20 pages

One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

The Steering Effects of Operational Code Beliefs in the Chilean-Bolivian Rivalry

part III|93 pages

The Psychological Characteristics of US Presidents

part IV|127 pages

Computational Models of Foreign Policy Roles

part V|15 pages

Beyond Beliefs in World Politics

chapter 16|13 pages

Operational Codes and Foreign Policy Roles

Conceptual Insights and Empirical Results