ABSTRACT

This handbook provides contributions by some of the world-leading experts in the field on recent phenomena and trends in transnational terrorism.

Based on the methodological approach of a trend-and-key factor analysis of transnational terrorism and processed on the virtual platform "Foresight Strategy Cockpit" (FSC), the volume seeks to examine what potential future variants of transnational terrorism may evolve. Focusing on the latest structural developments in the sphere of politically or religiously motivated violence, the handbook considers the tactical, strategic, and not least the systemic dimension of terrorism. Divided into seven thematic sections, the handbook’s contributions cover a wide range of issues, dealing among others with strategic and hybrid terrorism, the systemic dimension of extremist violence, prevalent actors, counter-narratives, the crime terror-nexus, the role of digitalization and the spiral dynamic between Islamist and right-wing terrorism. The expert contributions provide a condensed overview of current developments, structural linkages and important academic debates centering around transnational salafi-jihadi terrorism, but also right-wing terrorism and counter-terrorism. A key objective of the work is to make the effects of prevention/preemption, (de-) radicalization and (non-) intervention both transparent and assessable. As such, it contributes well-founded strategies, feasible solutions and options for policy-makers and counter-terrorism experts.

This volume will be of great interest to students of terrorism and counter-terrorism, political violence and security studies.

chapter 1|14 pages

Introduction

part I|80 pages

The Strategic and Systemic Dimension of Terrorism

chapter 162|5 pages

Strategic Terrorism

chapter 4|10 pages

The Systemic Dimension of Jihadist Violence

A Root Cause Analysis of Jihadist Terrorism

chapter 5|7 pages

Jihadist Violence

New Terrorist Actors/Groups Emerging – Who will be the Key Players in the Next Decade?

chapter 6|12 pages

From Networks to Social Identity

A Dialectical Model of Terrorism

chapter 8|23 pages

The Case of Hybrid Terrorism

Systemic Lessons from Recent European Plots

part II|78 pages

Technology and Radicalization

chapter 10|17 pages

Online Territories of Terror

The Multiplatform Communication Paradigm and the Information Ecology of the Web3 Era

chapter 11|8 pages

The Virtualisation of Terror

Violent Extremism on the Internet Today

chapter 12|11 pages

The Evolution of Hybrid Radicalization

From Small Group to Mass Phenomenon

chapter 15|7 pages

Counter-Narratives

part III|48 pages

Right-Wing Extremism and Stochastic Terrorism

chapter 18|9 pages

Generation Z and Terrorism

chapter 19|5 pages

Stochastic Terrorism

Mass Media Escalation Against Victim Groups as a Radicalization Platform for Terrorist Individual Perpetrators?

chapter 21|13 pages

Right-Wing Extremists and State Deniers in Europe

Current Narratives, Trends and Actors

part IV|78 pages

Forecast, Trends, Scenarios and Tactics

chapter 24|19 pages

Key Trends in Transnational Terrorism

A Software-Based Key Factor Foresight Analysis

chapter 25|9 pages

Scenarios of Transnational Terrorism

Trends and Developments – A Fact-Based Threat Assessment

chapter 26|14 pages

Foiled Versus Launched Terror Plots

Some Lessons Learned

chapter 27|11 pages

Hybrid Loans and Tactics of Jihadism

Will Hybridity Remain the Narrative of Convergent, Politically Motivated Violence?

chapter 28|6 pages

Terrorism and Hybrid Threats

Analyzing Common Characteristics and Constraints for Countermeasures

part V|96 pages

Political Islam, Jihadism, Psychology and Counter-Terrorism

chapter 30029|12 pages

Legalistic Islamism

The Transition from Political Islam to Jihadism

chapter 30|8 pages

Jihadism and True Islam

Discourses and Realities

chapter 31|9 pages

Jihadism in the West

A Post-Caliphate Transitory Phase

chapter 32|10 pages

Becoming a Jihadist

A Psychoanalytical Perspective

chapter 33|11 pages

Understanding the Motivations of “Lone Wolf” Terrorists 1

The “Bathtub” Model

chapter 37|8 pages

Crisis and Catastrophes, Security and Resilience

On the Significance of Finding Definitions for Security Policy

part VI|84 pages

COVID-19, Resilience and Terrorism

chapter 39638|7 pages

Covid-19 and Global Terrorism Pandemics

chapter 39|13 pages

The False Promise of Salafi-Jihadists

Rhetoric and the Response to COVID-19

chapter 40|14 pages

The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism

Reassessing the Evidence

chapter 41|13 pages

A Legacy of Disorder, Desperation, and Defiance

The Possible Effects of the Coronavirus Pandemic on the Future Course of Terrorism

chapter 42|24 pages

Hybrid Jihad

A Trend Scenario for Transnational Terrorism

chapter 43|11 pages

Terrorist Threats Post-Covid-19

part VII|66 pages

Afghanistan, Al-Qaeda and Beyond

chapter 45|11 pages

Afghanistan Under Taliban Rule

Consequences for Global Security and Terrorism Against the West

chapter 46|9 pages

Afghanistan After the Withdrawal of the West

The Taliban, Al-Qaeda, and IS-K

chapter 47|11 pages

Global Jihad

Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State's Struggle for Power and Global Dominance

chapter 48|8 pages

Al-Qaeda—20 Years After 9/11

chapter 49|17 pages

The Taliban-Al-Qaeda Nexus

Brothers in Arms