ABSTRACT
Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World collects the papers presented at the 28th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2018 in Trondheim, Norway, June 17-21, 2018.
The contributions cover a wide range of methodologies and application areas for safety and reliability that contribute to safe societies in a changing world. These methodologies and applications include:
- foundations of risk and reliability assessment and management
- mathematical methods in reliability and safety
- risk assessment
- risk management
- system reliability
- uncertainty analysis
- digitalization and big data
- prognostics and system health management
- occupational safety
- accident and incident modeling
- maintenance modeling and applications
- simulation for safety and reliability analysis
- dynamic risk and barrier management
- organizational factors and safety culture
- human factors and human reliability
- resilience engineering
- structural reliability
- natural hazards
- security
- economic analysis in risk management
Safety and Reliability – Safe Societies in a Changing World will be invaluable to academics and professionals working in a wide range of industrial and governmental sectors: offshore oil and gas, nuclear engineering, aeronautics and aerospace, marine transport and engineering, railways, road transport, automotive engineering, civil engineering, critical infrastructures, electrical and electronic engineering, energy production and distribution, environmental engineering, information technology and telecommunications, insurance and finance, manufacturing, marine transport, mechanical engineering, security and protection, and policy making.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
part 1|99 pages
Accident and incident modeling
chapter 1|8 pages
Comparing HFACS and AcciMaps in a health informatics case study—the analysis of a medication dosing error
chapter 2|5 pages
Possibilities of using simulation software to estimate losses of industrial facilities and installations—critical analysis
chapter 3|9 pages
Analysis on factors of subway incidents for signal system maintenance improving based on a hybrid model
chapter 8|8 pages
Reliability of power system considering replacement of conventional power plants with renewables
chapter 9|8 pages
Losing containment at high temperature and pressure—an experimental study with water-steam circuit
chapter 10|7 pages
An investigation and statistical analysis into the incidents and failures associated with dynamic positioning systems
chapter 11|6 pages
A heterogeneous ensemble approach for the prediction of the remaining useful life of packaging industry machinery
part 2|39 pages
Economic analysis in risk management
chapter 14|10 pages
Cost-benefit analysis for non-structural flood risk mitigation measures: Insights and lessons learnt from a real case study
part 3|155 pages
Organizational factors and safety culture
chapter 18|8 pages
The impact of personal liability concerns on incident reporting in engineered systems
chapter 20|8 pages
Safety climate and compliance in the Norwegian aquaculture industry—employees’ perceptions at different company levels
chapter 22|7 pages
Interorganizational complexity—main challenges and opportunities in the petroleum industry
chapter 23|7 pages
False alarm? Effects of reducing unnecessary dispatches by fire and rescue services
chapter 24|8 pages
Role multiplexity and home-grown resilience: A study of part-time firefighters in rural emergency management
chapter 26|7 pages
Reviewing macro level factors as a foundation for understanding quality and patient safety improvement efforts across countries
chapter 27|8 pages
Multicultural workplaces: A state of the art study of the Norwegian construction industry
chapter 28|6 pages
Reliability and safety engineering: The principles innovation and optimisation of German and Japanese product constructions
chapter 29|5 pages
Safety and risk management in oil & gas industry: Development of safety x-factor model
chapter 32|8 pages
Applying elements of the STAMP method to the reorganization of the German nuclear waste management
chapter 35|8 pages
Professionalization in safety: A study of the professional context of a post master safety program’s alumni
chapter 37|9 pages
Production and protection. Seafarers’ handling of pressure in gemeinschaft and gesellshaft
part 4|212 pages
Human factors and human reliability
chapter 38|9 pages
Teamwork competence required across operational states: Findings from nuclear power plant operation
chapter 39|5 pages
Verification of HTC Vive deployment capabilities for ergonomic evaluations in virtual reality environments
chapter 41|6 pages
Usability and user experience: Adaption and application for a railway related environment
chapter 42|10 pages
Human reliability analysis—accounting for human actions and external factors through the project life cycle
chapter 44|8 pages
Study on seafarers’ emotion identification during watch-keeping using bridge simulation
chapter 47|8 pages
The weighting method’s impact on the weighting process in decision making problems
chapter 48|6 pages
A multi-discipline method to assess the human performance in manufacturing industry for safety and quality optimization
chapter 50|9 pages
Data learning and expert judgment in a bayesian belief network for offshore decommissioning risk assessment
chapter 51|9 pages
Urban avalanche search and rescue operations in Longyearbyen: A study of public-private cooperation
chapter 52|9 pages
At least as safe as manned shipping? Autonomous shipping, safety and “human error”
chapter 55|8 pages
A computational cognitive modeling approach to human performance assessment in nuclear power plants
chapter 56|9 pages
Towards a framework for assurance of autonomous navigation systems in the maritime industry
chapter 58|8 pages
Applying an operational safety barrier framework in a major oil and gas field development project
chapter 59|7 pages
Naturalistic decision making in process control: The guidance-expertise model and the model of resilience in situation
chapter 61|7 pages
Task complexity, and operators’ capabilities as predictor of human error: Modeling framework and an example of application
chapter 62|8 pages
Bayesian aggregation of expert judgment data for quantification of human failure probabilities for radiotherapy
part |216 pages
Maintenance modeling and applications
chapter |9 pages
A predictive approach to jointly schedule missions and maintenances for a deteriorating vehicle
chapter |8 pages
A concept for a holistic risk-based operation and maintenance strategy for wind turbines
chapter |9 pages
A modelling methodology for the assessment of preventive maintenance on a compressor drive system
chapter |8 pages
Assessing the impact of operational context variables on rolling stock reliability. A real case study
chapter |8 pages
Opportunistic maintenance strategy for a train fleet under safety constraints and inter-system dependencies
chapter |8 pages
Data-driven and risk-based decision support for maintenance planning on electrical power grid systems
chapter |8 pages
The real-time reliability evaluation and sequential inspection decision based on Wiener process
chapter |9 pages
Optimal burn-in for repairable products sold with two-dimensional warranty considering preventive maintenance
chapter |6 pages
Maintenance resources allocation for the profit maximization of a park of identical systems
chapter |9 pages
Reliability-based maintenance optimization for the leased equipment with deterioration depending on age and usage
chapter |8 pages
A fuzzy evaluation method based on fuzzy consistency matrix for evaluating maintenance design program
chapter |9 pages
Towards a model based asset deterioration framework represented by probabilistic relational models
chapter |6 pages
Bayesian update and aperiodic maintenance policy for deteriorating systems with unknown parameters
part |229 pages
Mathematical methods in reliability and safety
chapter |9 pages
Failure Mode Effects & Criticality Analysis (FMECA) using Bayesian Dirichlet-multinomial conjugate pair
chapter |8 pages
Bringing formal methods on the rail
chapter |8 pages
A method of road network vulnerability identification taking into account travelers’ heterogeneous risk attitudes
chapter |6 pages
Statistical test planning using prior knowledge—advancing the approach of Beyer and Lauster
chapter |5 pages
New resilience performance indices based on the k-terminal reliability of the complete graph
chapter |6 pages
Operating environment threats and climate-weather hazards impact on maritime ferry safety
chapter |6 pages
Reliability assessment model of technical object in aspect of catastrophic damage in the form of jamming—an outline
chapter |8 pages
Extensions of the I&AB method for the reliability assessment of the spent fuel pool of EPR
chapter |8 pages
Advances in the simplification of Fault Trees automatically generated from AltaRica 3.0 models
chapter |7 pages
Enhancement of the AltaRica 3.0 stepwise simulator by introducing an abstract notion of time
chapter |8 pages
Reliability forecasting of components/systems in automobile applications by using two-dimensional stress functions
chapter |6 pages
Newly enhanced computing algorithm to quantify unavailability of maintained multi-component systems
chapter |9 pages
Probabilistic safety assessment and state prediction of cranes based on fuzzy theory
part |209 pages
Prognostics and system health management
chapter 120|7 pages
Optimal prognostic maintenance policy for railway track systems using rolling contact fatigue data
chapter 122|6 pages
Structural damage detection by integrating short time fourier transform, principal component analysis and logistic regression
chapter 123|9 pages
Fault diagnosis and remaining useful life prediction of multiple deteriorating components in hybrid dynamical system
chapter 124|8 pages
Energy efficiency and predictive maintenance applications using smart energy measuring devices
chapter 125|8 pages
A diagnosis method for diesel engine wear fault based on grey rough set and SOM neural network
chapter 126|8 pages
Anomaly indicators for Kaplan turbine components based on patterns of normal behavior
chapter 127|6 pages
Current status of the MFM suite for diagnostic and prognostic reasoning of industrial process plants
chapter 130|8 pages
Prognostic and health management for safety barriers in infrastructures: Opportunities and challenges
chapter 131|8 pages
A deep variational auto-encoder based dimensionality reduction for fault diagnosis in ball bearings
chapter 132|6 pages
Unsupervised deep generative adversarial based methodology for automatic fault detection
chapter 133|7 pages
Computer vision for structural damage quantification: A novel residual deep learning based approach
chapter 135|8 pages
Reliability engineering based on operating data and monitoring systems within technical products
chapter 136|7 pages
Enhanced hybrid prognostic approach applied to aircraft on-board electromechanical actuators affected by progressive faults
chapter 138|7 pages
The class of life time distributions with a mean residual life linear in time:
chapter 139|7 pages
Join optimization of detectors’ fleet settings to maximize global detection power
chapter 140|6 pages
Assessment method of the deterioration degree of asphalt concrete airport pavements
chapter 142|7 pages
Optimization of periodic inspection time of sis subject to a regular proof testing
chapter 144|4 pages
Machine learning modeling for massive industrial data: Railroad peak kips prediction
chapter 145|7 pages
Adaptive meta-heuristic to predict dent depth damage in the fixed offshore structures
chapter 146|6 pages
Strategic view of an assets health index for making long-term decisions in different industries
chapter 147|7 pages
Acoustic emission based fault diagnosis via a novel deep convolutional neural network method
part |163 pages
Resilience engineering
chapter 148|7 pages
Best practices to improve public private people partnerships in the city resilience-building process
chapter 149|10 pages
Checklist for judgement of technical facility safety level and results obtained by its application in practice
chapter 152|9 pages
Enhancing metro system resilience after signaling perturbations by bus bridging service: The case of Beijing
chapter 155|9 pages
Creating comparable public tolerance and technical performance measures for critical infrastructure resilience evaluation
chapter 159|7 pages
Interdependent infrastructure network restoration from a community resilience perspective
chapter 161|7 pages
Measuring infrastructure and community recovery rate using Bayesian methods: A case study of power systems resilience
chapter 162|9 pages
Contrasting critical infrastructure resilience from Swedish infrastructure failure data
chapter 165|6 pages
Resilient performance in response to the 2015 refugee influx in the Øresund region
chapter 166|9 pages
Improving resilience management for critical infrastructures—strategies and practices across air traffic management and healthcare
part |435 pages
Risk assessment
chapter 170|5 pages
Probabilistic analysis of faults affecting multiple trains of the electrical power supply system of nuclear power plants
chapter 171|6 pages
A scenario-based risk analysis oriented to manage safety critical situations in autonomous driving
chapter 173|10 pages
Multi-risk and L.U.P.: A methodology to evaluate neglected risks and risk interactions. An Italian case study
chapter 174|6 pages
Emergency assessment in case of hazardous substance leakage at Czech Republic freight rail transport in 2008–2016
chapter 176|7 pages
Use case-based consideration of safety and security in cyber physical production systems applied to a collaborative robot system
chapter 177|8 pages
Anti-icing expected heat loss as a risk indicator for arctic offshore logistics operations
chapter 178|8 pages
Safety of machinery—risk analysis and requirements for safety of gravity loaded axes
chapter 179|5 pages
Risk significance assessment with operational events of Korea nuclear power plants
chapter 181|8 pages
The future of driver training and driver instructor education in Norway with increasing ADAS technology in cars
chapter 183|8 pages
Evaluating models for the inclusion in a safety assessment framework for efficient transport
chapter 184|4 pages
A framework for modeling of multiple system failures—recoveries through multi-dimensional distributions in dynamic event trees
chapter 185|8 pages
Using an enterprise architecture model for assessing the resilience of critical infrastructure
chapter 186|9 pages
Application of systems-theoretic process analysis to a subsea gas compression system
chapter 187|7 pages
Enhanced condition monitoring of the machining process using wavelet packet transform
chapter 190|8 pages
Evaluating approaches for hazard identification for the inclusion in a safety assessment framework for efficient transport
chapter 193|7 pages
Risk of crack formation in power grid wooden poles and relationship with meteorological conditions: A Norwegian case study
chapter 194|9 pages
Improvement of the risk-based approach for evaluation of permanently plugged and abandoned oil and gas wells
chapter 195|7 pages
The use of bond graph modelling in polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell fault diagnosis
chapter 198|9 pages
Analysis of domino scenarios in chemical and process facilities operating in harsh environmental conditions
chapter 199|8 pages
Site risk analysis for nuclear installations—Nordic method developments and pilot studies
chapter 200|9 pages
Risk-informed safety classification of components of auxiliary systems for emergency diesel generators in nuclear power plants
chapter 201|9 pages
Development of a qualitative framework for analysing high-impact low-probability events in power systems
chapter 204|6 pages
A general framework for integrated risk assessment of nuclear/non-nuclear combined installations on market-oriented nuclear industry
chapter 207|9 pages
A probabilistic risk assessment method for the security of supply in gas networks supported by physical models
chapter 209|8 pages
A framework for aggregating risk information across organisational levels—the case of Swedish municipalities
chapter 210|8 pages
Toward the integration of uncertainty and probabilities in spatial multi-criteria risk analysis
chapter 211|8 pages
Risk assessment of worldwide refinery accidents using advanced classification methods
chapter 213|9 pages
Alternative life-loss rates for failures of large concrete and masonry dams in mountain regions of OECD countries
chapter 215|8 pages
A new approach for social vulnerability in mainland Portugal area for risk mitigation
chapter 216|7 pages
Criticality analysis of wind turbine energy system using fuzzy digraph models and matrix method
chapter 217|8 pages
Hazard identification for a dynamic positioning and mooring system in Arctic condition
chapter 219|8 pages
Branching rules and quantification based on human behavior in the ADS-IDAC dynamic PRA platform
part 10|198 pages
Risk management
chapter 225|9 pages
How systems engineering may be useful in preparing FMECA—lesson learnt from a practical case
chapter 226|7 pages
Study on the flight landing quality evaluation model with analytical network process and matter element analysis method
chapter 229|8 pages
EU risk governance of migrants and refugees’ influxes: A realistic foundation for crisis governance?
chapter 230|6 pages
Unforeseen events with a major accident potential—a study of some examples from the Norwegian oil and gas industry
chapter 231|7 pages
Analysis of 985 fire incidents related to oil- and gas production on the Norwegian continental shelf
chapter 233|8 pages
Using microworlds to study critical infrastructure protection—the effect of incentives on risk management
chapter 236|6 pages
Rescue Emergency Drone (RED) network for assessment of traffic accidents in Denmark
chapter 237|9 pages
Swedish multi-level planning system for critical infrastructure protection
chapter 243|7 pages
Field operations in the high arctic—experienced feedback and tacit knowledge as key tools for safety management
part |247 pages
Simulation for safety and reliability analysis
chapter |5 pages
Effectiveness investigation of the correlation algorithms applied in a Smart ID Card system to monitor the use of PPE
chapter 255|8 pages
A flexible simulation model of the operation and maintenance process of a complex technical system
chapter 256|8 pages
Feasibility study of a simulation driven approach for estimating reliability of wind turbine fluid power pitch systems
chapter 258|7 pages
A flow-based method for identifying critical pipelines in complex natural gas supply systems
chapter 261|9 pages
Robust management of distributed energy resources for frequency control in microgrids with unreliable communication
chapter 265|9 pages
A metal-oxide-semiconductor devices reliability assessing method based on physics of failure
chapter 266|7 pages
Case study of the effects of hurricanes on the coupled electricity and water systems of St Kitts
chapter 267|9 pages
Availability simulation model of global navigation satellite system based on operation
chapter 268|9 pages
A safe flow-management method for air traffic considering the UAS presence into the non-segregated airspace
chapter 270|8 pages
Probabilistic assessment of the impact of connecting a new distributed generation unit to a potentially congested power system
chapter 274|7 pages
A stochastic-based evacuation model for risk assessment in road tunnel fire accidents and the importance of educating users
chapter 275|8 pages
Incremental fatigue damage simulation for reliability assessment of steel wire ropes under fretting fatigue conditions
chapter 276|9 pages
An efficient computational strategy for robust maintenance scheduling: Application to corroded pipelines
part |135 pages
Structural reliability
chapter 278|8 pages
Bayesian updating of stochastic process-based models for corroding gas pipelines based on imperfect inspection information
chapter 279|8 pages
Effect of the manufacturing defects on the reliability of disposal packages for high level radioactive waste
chapter 280|7 pages
Probabilistic fatigue damage prediction of relative short edge crack using direct optimized probabilistic calculation
chapter 283|8 pages
Sealing life evaluation of soft-packed power batteries based on ADT and modified CZM
chapter 285|7 pages
Thermal fatigue lifetime prediction of BGA solder joint via a novel fatigue crack propagation model
chapter 289|8 pages
Reliability quantitative analysis method for mechanical system by using extended fault tree
chapter 292|9 pages
Two-dimensional approach towards a probabilistic model of fatigue cracking of an industrial pipeline
part |272 pages
System reliability
chapter 297|8 pages
An evidential network-based method for common-cause failure analysis under uncertainty
chapter 299|9 pages
Methodology for the preparation of accelerated reliability testing of electronic components in combat vehicles
chapter 300|4 pages
Approximation method for reliability of one-unit repairable system with time redundancy
chapter 301|8 pages
A reliability analysis method for complex mechanical systems containing probabilistic-interval information
chapter 302|7 pages
Common cause failures and cascading failures in technical systems: Similarities, differences and barriers
chapter 303|9 pages
Industry 4.0 and complexity: Markov and Petri net based calculation of PFH for designated architectures and beyond
chapter 305|8 pages
Availability modeling of a virtualized IP multimedia subsystem using non-Markovian stochastic reward nets
chapter 309|9 pages
Preliminary safety assessment of circular variable nacelle inlet concepts for aero engines in civil aviation
chapter 311|8 pages
Reliability modeling for dependent competing failure processes between component degradation and system performance deterioration
chapter 312|7 pages
Quantitative reliability analysis method for repairable systems with multiple correlations based on goal-oriented method
chapter 313|6 pages
Reliability based topology optimization design of the network system: A case study on a sewage treatment system
chapter 314|8 pages
Towards a systematic evaluation of supplementary protective measures and their quantification for use in functional safety
chapter 317|9 pages
Network analysis of the European natural gas infrastructure to quantify its performance in long-duration pipeline shutdown scenarios
chapter 318|7 pages
An efficient reliability analysis on complex non-repairable systems with common-cause failures
chapter 319|8 pages
LLVM-based stochastic error propagation analysis of manually developed software components
chapter 320|8 pages
Verification of timing properties of a medical patient table case study using probabilistic model checking
chapter 323|8 pages
Probability-based reliability and availability assessments for a lane at a signalised intersection
chapter 326|7 pages
Communication failure analysis for a fleet formation flight of drones based on absorbing Markov chain
chapter 327|8 pages
Analyzing the reliability for connected vehicles using qualitative approaches and quantitative methods
chapter 328|8 pages
Bayesian networks with imprecise datasets: Application to oscillating water column
part |96 pages
Uncertainty analysis
chapter 330|8 pages
Uncertainty sensitivity assessment on the optimization of the design and operation of complex energy systems
chapter 331|9 pages
Modular global uncertainty analysis of event-driven indicators of system’s availability
chapter 332|6 pages
A performance-margin-based belief reliability model considering parameter uncertainty
chapter 334|8 pages
Advanced methodology for uncertainty propagation in computer experiments with large number of inputs
chapter 336|6 pages
Reliability assessment for solid state drive based on measurement errors and fuzzy failure threshold
chapter 338|6 pages
Managing interdependencies in critical infrastructures—a cornerstone for system resilience
chapter 340|6 pages
Application of fuzzy finite element method in addressing the presence of uncertainties
chapter 341|8 pages
Application of evidential network to model uncertainty in quantitative risk assessment of Natech accidents
part |45 pages
Dynamic risk and barrier management
chapter 343|9 pages
Development of dynamic safety envelopes for autonomous remotely operated underwater vehicles
chapter 344|7 pages
Dynamic risk assessment during eco-driving behaviors for conventionally fueled vehicles
chapter 346|9 pages
Risk indicators for safety performance assessment of crane-operations in the chemical industry
part |56 pages
Natural hazards
chapter 351|7 pages
Risk management for natural hazards based on reliability analysis: A case study of landslides
part |104 pages
Mathematical methods in reliability and safety
chapter 355|9 pages
Probabilities in safety of machinery—how fixed and movable guards bring about a significant risk reduction
chapter 356|8 pages
Analysis of fatal fires in Norway over a decade, - a retrospective observational study
chapter 357|9 pages
Probabilities in safety of machinery—Markov model for the scaling of risk reduction effects due to limiting the hazard exposure
chapter 358|8 pages
Information flow and knowledge transfer of accident investigation results in the Norwegian construction industry
chapter 359|6 pages
Personal protective equipment detection in industrial facilities using camera video streaming
chapter 360|9 pages
Norwegian police training in the use of force: A preparation for facing the realities of street challenges?
chapter 361|9 pages
The role of employers, safety engineers and safety reps in the improvement of safety level at enterprises
chapter 362|7 pages
Standardized risk assessment techniques: A review in the framework of occupational safety
chapter 364|9 pages
Maritime safety culture and safety behaviours in Greece and Norway: Comparing professional seafarers and private leisure boat users
chapter 365|8 pages
Accident and disease prevention in working life: Common grounds and areas for mutual learning
part |119 pages
Security
chapter 366|7 pages
Customs—a vital contributor to safe societies? A study of the Norwegian customs service
chapter 369|9 pages
Empirical studies of methods for safety and security co-analysis of autonomous boat
chapter 371|8 pages
Security risk and vulnerability analysis in military operational planning: The why’s and how’s
chapter 376|6 pages
Optimizing security patrolling scheduling in chemical industrial parks by using game theory
chapter 377|5 pages
Perception of security and use of public travel modes in an urban Norwegian public
chapter 380|9 pages
How can we explain improvements in organizational information security culture in an organization providing critical infrastructure?
part 19|83 pages
Digitalization and big data
chapter 382|9 pages
Fault diagnosis of wind turbine structures using decision tree learning algorithms with big data
chapter 383|7 pages
Cyber physical systems implementation for asset management improvement: A framework for the transition
chapter 384|5 pages
Automated train driver competency performance indicators using real train driving data
chapter 385|8 pages
A preliminary approach to subsea risk management using sensor network information
chapter 387|6 pages
Integrated analysis system for elevator optimization maintenance using ontology processing and text mining
chapter 389|8 pages
A computer leaning approach to obtain safety information from multi-lingual accident reports
chapter 390|9 pages
Building cyber resilience through a discursive approach to “big cyber” threat landscapes
part 20|40 pages
Foundation of risk and reliability assessment and management
chapter 394|8 pages
Swimming in a slurry of schemes: Making sense of aquaculture standards and certification schemes
part 21|22 pages
Economic analysis in risk management
chapter 396|8 pages
Time-dependent reliability in flood protection decision making in The Netherlands
chapter 398|6 pages
Harmonizing normative organizational structures and serification & validation concepts for safety critical generic projects
part 22|7 pages
Big data risk analysis