ABSTRACT

The science of AI was born a little over 60 years ago, but for most of that time its achievements were modest. In 2012 it experienced a big bang, when a branch of statistics called Machine Learning (and a sub-branch called Deep Learning) was applied to it. Now machines have surpassed humans in image recognition, and they are catching up with us at speech recognition and natural language processing. Every day, the media reports the launch of a new service, a new product, and a new demonstration powered by AI. When will it end? The surprising truth is, the AI revolution has only just begun.

Artificial Intelligence and the Two Singularities argues that in the course of this century, the exponential growth in the capability of AI is likely to bring about two "singularities" - points at which conditions are so extreme that the normal rules break down. The first is the economic singularity, when machine skill reaches a level that renders many of us unemployable and requires an overhaul of our current economic and social systems. The second is the technological singularity, when machine intelligence reaches and then surpasses the cognitive abilities of an adult human, relegating us to the second smartest species on the planet.

These singularities will present huge challenges, but this book argues that we can meet these challenges and overcome them. If we do, the rewards could be almost unimaginable.

This book covers:

• Recent developments in AI and its future potential

• The economic singularity and the technological singularity in depth

• The risks and opportunities presented by AI

• What actions we should take

Artificial intelligence can turn out to be the best thing ever to happen to humanity, making our future wonderful almost beyond imagination. But only if we address head-on the challenges that it will raise.

Calum Chace is a best-selling author of fiction and non-fiction books and articles, focusing on the subject of artificial intelligence. He is a regular speaker on artificial intelligence and related technologies, and runs a blog on the subject at www.pandoras-brain. com. Prior to becoming a full-time writer and speaker, he spent 30 years in business as a marketer, a strategy consultant, and a CEO. He studied philosophy at Oxford University, where he discovered that the science fiction he had been reading since boyhood was simply philosophy in fancy dress.

chapter

Introduction

part |100 pages

Artificial Intelligence

chapter |14 pages

An Overnight Sensation, after 60 Years

chapter |24 pages

The State of the Art

chapter |13 pages

Exponential Improvement

chapter |41 pages

Tomorrow’s AI

chapter |4 pages

Singularities

part |80 pages

The Technological Singularity

chapter |8 pages

When Might the First AGI Arrive?

chapter |8 pages

From AGI to Superintelligence (ASI)

chapter |24 pages

Will Superintelligence Be Beneficial?

chapter |6 pages

The Technological Singularity

part |166 pages

The Economic Singularity

chapter |18 pages

The History of Automation

chapter |58 pages

Is It Different This Time?

chapter |42 pages

The Challenges

chapter |10 pages

Four Scenarios

chapter |18 pages

Protopian Un-forecast

chapter |11 pages

The Economic Singularity

chapter |6 pages

Outroduction