ABSTRACT

Notions of probability and uncertainty have been increasingly prominant in modern economics. This book considers the philosophical and practical difficulties inherent in integrating these concepts into realistic economic situations. It outlines and evaluates the major developments, indicating where further work is needed.
This book addresses:
* probability, utility and rationality within current economic thought and practice
* concepts of ignorance and indeterminancy
* experimental economics
* econometrics, with particular reference inference and estimation.

chapter |7 pages

Introduction

chapter 1|18 pages

Varieties of Probability

chapter 2|24 pages

Expected Utility

chapter 3|21 pages

Rationality and Conditional Expectations

chapter 4|20 pages

Ignorance, Surprise and Vagueness

chapter 6|21 pages

Evidence, Support and Beliefs

chapter 7|25 pages

Econometrics

chapter 8|7 pages

Concluding Remarks and Overview