Originally published in 1923 Chance and Error examines the vagaries of chance, and how this is the result of the interference of yes and no. The book basis its examination of chance on the idea of a two-sided coin. The book stipulates that contradictories are head and tail, or yes and no. When the coin is flipped in the air yes normally wins half of the trials, but this includes half of the half that normally go to no. Thus, normally in one quarter of the trials there is an interference of yes and no. From this the chance of any number of heads or tails can be easily calculated, and all results that are attained by more difficult mathematics are secured. The book uses this idea to examine interference of yes and no in everyday life and argues that this causes the variations in everything that goes on around us in nature and in our daily life. This book will be of interest to philosophers of logic, as well as mathematicians.

chapter Chapter I|70 pages


chapter Chapter II|12 pages

Games whose Expectation is 0

chapter Chapter III|17 pages

Direct Observations

chapter Chapter IV|11 pages

Indirect Observations

chapter Chapter V|11 pages


chapter Chapter VI|14 pages

Target Practice

chapter Chapter VII|4 pages

Errors in Three Dimensions

chapter Chapter VIII|13 pages

Monte Carlo

chapter Chapter IX|7 pages

Variable Chances

chapter Chapter X|11 pages


chapter Chapter XI|43 pages