ABSTRACT

Drought draws together contributions from over 75 leading international researchers in the field to present the most comprehensive body of research on the physical and social dimensions of drought to date. Including an extensive range of case-studies covering the most drought-prone and most affected countries, the contributors examine new technology, planning methodologies and mitigation actions from recent drought experiences worldwide.
Following a discussion of the critical concepts of drought, the work is divided into the following additional parts:
· causes and predictability
· monitoring and early warning techniques
· impacts and assessment methodologies
· links between drought and other global issues
· conclusions and future challenges

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DROUGHT AS A NATURAL HAZARD

Donald A. Wilhite estimated losse Worldwide, economic damages attributed to natural Oklahoma, Kansas, Colo disasters tripled from the 1960s (US$40 billion) to Nevada. Likewise, significant losses also

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m na atg io n n if s i . edNw at hue ra nlphlaazcaerddsinre th su eltco in n te si xgtnioff ic d an ev telloosps in ogfn af aftliiocn te adl by drought request life and serious economic, environmental, and social sodes are conm ot m re upno it r y te odr . dTohnuorasgso istance from the inter­ impacts that greatly retard the development process. those that occurred in Austra s l , ias , eBvveerrendmr ents, these epi­ Figure 1.1 illustrates the trend of major natural dis­ England, the United States, and mra az niyl, ou o C th agnhatdsa , suS ch as asters between 1963 and 1992, expressed as the num­ in recent years are not included in these sta etriscto ic usnp tr aiiens , tboetraloafndniu sa a sters affecting 1 per cent or more of the . these disaste lrsgrboyss ty npaet , i o il n lu asltrparto in dgutcht. atFd ig ro u u re gh1t . , 2flroaondkss , aon cc dutrrro in p g ic d al ursitnogrm th siswpeerreiotdh . eTm he osCtefn re tr qeufeonrtRde isasters Drough in the Epidemiology of Disasters (Blaikie et al. s1e9a9 rc 4 h ) acfofm ec ptlienxtbiustc le onsidered by many to be the mo g more a st puenodpe le r sto th oadn of aan ll y na o tu th ra elr ha hzaazradsst , sgh ro ouwpnedthnaattutrhaeldniu sa m st beerrococfud rr reonucgehb ts y d in eccraedae and has (Hagman 1984). For example, in sub-Saharan Afri rd 62 in the 1960s to 237 during the 1980s. H se odwe fr voemr, t th oehdarvoeugahdtvseo rs fet ly heaefa fe rl cytetdommiodr -e 19t8h0asn ar 4e0 re m po il rltcead , tohneeseoff ig u th re esfm or osdtrouungdhet are misleading. Drought is people (Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance 199 ion because the sources of mos rtreopfotrhteesdesn ta attiu st riaclsad re is a in st teerrs ­ Tmh il e li o1n99p1e -o 2plderoaungdhtre in su s lt oeudthienrnaAd fr eifciaciat ff oefc te cde02 ) 0 . national aid or donor organisations. Unless countries supplies of more than 6.7 million tonnes (SAD r C ea C l * = 1 % or more of total annual GNP

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National Drought Mitigation Center for the forty-eight contiguous states in the United States demon­ strated that severe and extreme drought affected more than 25 per cent of the country in twenty-seven o of ft7h5e0p ,0 a 0 st 0omnie2h (1 u , n9d4r2e , d50y0 ea k rs m . 2 T ) h o is rrm ep orrees . ents an area con D tr raosutg to htf lo s o el ddso , m hu rrre ic su an lt ess , inansdtrtuoc rn tu ardaol es d . a m Fo argteh , e s in e reasons, the quantification of impacts and the pro­ vision of disaster relief are far more difficult tasks for A fif lttyho ye uagrhsaT go an , n c ehill’s book was written m drought than they are for other natural hazards. recognising the li omnasteotloogf ists continue to strug o g re le twhiatnhtEommeerdgetnocydem al a in ngagweirtsh , ifm or paecxtasm th p a le t , ar aerestm ru ocrteu ra alccaunsd ­ p cr oiltiecry ia ) m fo ak redresclcaor ntinue tdor ou d g eb hat te a nd th e sc ie bnatsiissts (i a . ned ., lcoocm al m ise udn , i ca re ti sopno nd an in dgttroa ns th peosre ta t e io v n en ts c ha bnynerless , to p ri rnog ­ acc Second, the ab in se gnacneeonfdatopraecdirsoeugahntd . universally vdird in in k g in gemwear te gre , nacnydm so edfiocratlh . s T up h p es li eesc , ha ernascu te r r in is g ti cs sao fe f a it bsoeupttewdh definition of drought adds to the confusion drought have hindered the development of accurate, mu dsetgb re eeeotf her or reg s io ev nerai ty n . oRtneaald is rto ic uag lly h , tdeexfiisntistiaonnds , oiffd it roduogehst , a re nld ia , bl uel , tiamnadtetliym , el tyhee st fiom rm ate u s la o ti fon se voefr it dyraonudgh im tpcaocn ts ­ T th haitshiasvoenbeeeenxpdle an d at iaopnplfiocrattihoens ( coor re im spoafcdt) efsipne it ciio fi ncs . ting Heanzcayrd pl aenvsenbtysm ha ovsetbgeoevnerrnam nk eend ts b . y Bryant (1991) faincaalty io se ndsm tud o y re , th vaenl op 1e5d0 . W de iflihniitte io annsdiGn la th n e tz ir (1 c 9 la 8 ss 5 i ) ­ roannk th in egb is assiusmomftah ri esierdcihnarTaacb te le ri s1t . i1c . sKaenydhiamzp ar adctcsh . aTrh ac is ­ ddeeffiinne it idornosug are annudmemraonuys , mmoarney ex diost. noAtl th ad oeuqguhatteh ly etoefritsh ti ecsdu eg se re defoorftsheivsee ri v ty al , ulaetn io g n th inocf lu edveenatn , e to xtparlesasrieoanlp ar oel ic a y rb m i akers h . t T in hemteharneisnhgofludlstefromrsde fo cl ras ri c n ie gntd is rtosuagnhdteefxfteecn ts t, , tlootnagl -l toesrsm of im li p fe a , ctt , otsauldedceonnnoem ss i , calnod ss , oscoccu ia r­ lteox am sp pelceitfriacryim in pam ct o s st inc as keesy (i e . ceo ., ntohm ey ic ar seecn to orts ) l . i nk FeodrA re lntcheouogfhatshseocriaattiendgshoafzatrhdesvfao ri rou th s ir htayz -a orndesihnazTaarbdlse . pmeor cent , owfnho at r m is atlhperesc ig ip niitfa ic ti aonnceovoefraatphe re ri sohdolodfo th fr7e5ep1r .1 ova id re essuabnjeicnttievge, rattheedoavsesreaslslm ra ennktiosfuh se afzualrdb ec cahuas ra eci ­ tsee spe nctihas ll yormmio sl reea ? d A in gdeffo in r i ti looncao ti fon th sisw ty it phewa ou st lrdonbgetBee ri csatu ic sseoafntdhetihne te nrse it lya , t io dnusrhaitp io s n , baen tw desepna tia hlaezxatredns. t s ty ta p as eos na olfcporm ob ploenm ent of annual precipitation. These of drought events and the magnitude of associated init n io d n in s g an odftthheelcsaocn are kceopft th beytrheo su c se lt f o or fmau la m ti insgunddeefr ­ ­ icm og pean ct t s , a d rg ruom ug ehntt , ra hnokwsevveerry , h th ig aht . t O ot naelc lo asnsmoafke li fe aaop th p e ly rtshce ie dne ti fsitnsito io rndiin sc a ip clt in oenssiw de il rlateivoenntguiavle ly n n to ee dhotwo associated with drought in this case is significantly assessments of impact in u m al uld ti rpoluegh ec tosn it oum ations (e.g., d ov ro e u rr gah te t d . isLo ra srseoifnl if meo th sattsies tt d in ir gesc . t ly T h as esorcain at keidngwib th yrderlo ie ufgphrtogdreacm la m ra e ti s o ) n . s or revocations for eli igcibsie li cttyortso , dBrroyuagnhtt. atT tr h ib is uitses in a lo pspsroopfr ia li tfeesb in ecceau th se eporfim fa a m ry inceautsoe spre Tahdi rd ov , er draoluag rg hetrigmepoagcrtaspha ic re a nonstruct of famine in recent decades has been civil war or that result from other natural haz laradrse . aFtohraneudraamla and political strife, both of which heighten vulnerability to recent analysis of drought occurrence by x th aemp ( lUeg , eassdS) fa yrsotu em ght. mine s . anDdrocu an ghbteeavesnitgsnid fi icsarnutptnaftouord al p tr riogdguecrtifoonr

Rainless days co scarcely know a drought when we see have a long spell o t clear day after a rainy spell. we are a litt f such fi

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h it Drought igohccausrsw in el v is i rt a normal l as ulao ll wya ra ll i , re ncfla im curring featur ll a a ti rcearse . g I im t e is s . e I of climate; severity levels) and the vulnerability of society to the aberration, atteom cc puorrsariyniesveanrt. esTuh lt e o na fttuhrealoecvceunrtre (i n .e c . e , m of etpeeorrsoilso te g n ic tallad rg ro e-usgch al t e ) m rai annfe al nltafreeaatsu in r contr . Meaonfythpe ast to eocp li lmeaatseara id nid ty , i s which is sociate th re estorc ic ctuerdtao per­ disruptions in the global circulation pattern of the dr rence lo owftah tm er oesp is helrie td . e E , xipfoasnuy re th tiongd , ro th uagthtwvearc ie asnsd pa o t ia to ll yaa lt nedrm Pl oaoiurngs ht wedo if f f ic N ith most of Auo lt rythv is A ua m li esri ic f a ri , caa , nIdn ng droug d A ia u , s C tra h l ina, ht in So ia u ; th tthheey Great drought occurrence. Vulnerability, on the other hand, B east A ha si vae , d is e m de otgerrampihniecd ch bayrascotceira is l ti fcasc , to treschsnuoclhogays , ppoop li u cy la , ti aonnd , rTerhgaizo il, wes is nfsacpt erc tern Euro em e p iv heads is beyspme, anoyrttohehae both the vaes te arsn Uni region uarlplauns te odfS tates, social behaviour. These factors change over time, and nature of d re w la attievre . r th es upsonvsue ln teoratbhielsie ty c h is a n li gkeesl . yStuobs increase or decrease in cussed in mdo ro re ugdh et t a , il a la cthearriancttehriisstc ic hatph te art . will be dis­ isdaemne ti c re agl io in n w in il tlenhsaiv ty e , did ff uerraetn io tneefqfu ec etnst , d ev ro eungihfttshe in ytahree in D th reouagm ht oiusn th teocfonpsreeqcu ip ein ta cteioonfarencae tu iv readl re odvuecrt io anntcehra is ntg ic esd , because societal char , acatned ri st sipcas tia w l il c l ha hraavce ­ leexntg en th d , e d al tpheoru io gdhoofth ti emrec , li u m su a a ti l c ly faacs to erasso ( nsuocrhm as orheigihnvdu is lcnuesrsab . th ilHe it ow sye to ev ac derro , umg uch can be d tions fhrto , m an mdasnuybs one reeqgue to ntlecshsaepnt societal te ional and edrisscw ip il ­ l w ar mepoefr te a n tures, high winds, and low relative humidity) linary perspectives. th oerledv and a c ss aoncisaitgendi fi w ca it nht ly it aigngrm av aantyertehgeiosnesveo ri f ty thoeftphre in criapeanlt. Dr iny sseeaassoonugohfto is c als on, occu c r ur o re rneclea , teddeltaoysthienttihmeinsg ta r ( t i. e o ., f Because drought affects so many economic and social p th ri encriapianlsc ( rio . p e. , grroaw in tfh al lstraegnecse ) aonf rains in relation to intensity d , n the effectiveness of a se vca to ri rest , yscoofreds is coifpld in ef eisn . it Iinonasdhda it vieonb , ebeencaduesveeldorpoeudgbhyte cl viemna ts ti ) c . T ch haursa , c te eraicsh ti cs d ro aungdhtimypeaacruimsbuenr iq oufe ra iinn fa it lsltohcecug rs lo w be it , h in vaa ry l ing frequency in nearly all regions of Magalhaes ts. For example, developed and ltdyepvees lo opfinegc on coomuinctrs ie yss tem al s i , kea , ndth in e y cl eiam rs attihcadt if ofeetreanl. c e ( s19b8e8 tw ) eheanvef iv v e iv c id olnysp ec o u in ti tveeddoruotug th heta id peporlooagcihceasltdaik ff eenretnoce define it also reflect regional and and ccurred in northe s (Wilhite 1992). Impacts also timin 1g9o8f3r , ai nno fa ti lnlg an d th iemcpraic ti tcsaalstliB nk ra azgielsb . ebtew tw ee enen19t7h9esdo if cfieert al spcaotn ia tlelxytaonfdd ro te umgphot. raA ll y u , ni dveep rs eanldd in e g fi ni o ti nonthoef dur D at riooung , hitntseenvse it r y it , y a is nddegpeeongdreanpthin ca olto ex nl t y en tonof the dGrloaung tz h t ( 1i9s 85 an ) cuonnrcelau listic expectation. Wilhite and specific dro a should reflect a regio dneadltbhia as tdse in fi cnei ti w on at serofsudp ro p u ly g h is twmaatdeerbsyuphpu li m ug ahnt ac etp iv is i o ti d es e , anbdutveag ls e o ta t o io nntohneadreem gi aonnd ’ s s larg D el eyfianiftu io nncst io onfdorfocu li gmhat ti ccan re gbiemcea . tegorised broadly wi es. The soc th ie ty it , s ec f o ar n -o re mayc , hianngcdhiaem ra pca te crtiss , t ic msao ke fdirtos ug ef hfte , ctaslo nviron onngaGs la enittzh er 19c8o5n ). c ep Ctoun al c ep otruaol pe dreaftiinoin ti aolns ( W ar i e lh it oefatnhde not M im an pyo ss piebo le p , letociodn en si t d if eyradnrdomq ent uugahntt if dty if o . ficult, though dictionary t be largely atdheesccro ip ntc io enptyopfe , d generally defining of th ro e ug p h he t, naonmdetnhouns . the boundarie a F re orgeenxearm ic pilne , thseo ir frneaatlu it rya , l or the compone dnrpohu ysical t. Tghhet ri h ev as e nt b . oFtihg ur ae1n .3 atiu ll ruasl tra atn es d th saotc , iianlE 19 n 9 cy 6 c ) lo dpeefd in ia e sk associated wsodfroCulg im ht a te as a ‘a nndeW xt eeantdheedrp (S e c ri hondei -d er atrh eg e io enveinsta ( p i. reo ., dupc ro tboafbb il o it tyho th feoc re i g th iodnr ’ osuegxhptos fo urrean to yrseelaasto iv n e , taoytehaer , stoar ti sste ic vaelramluyletairysea -r omfedaenfifcoirenatre ra giinofn all currence at various These types of definitions are useful for furthering ’.

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icnodm ic persehceannsb iv e e fo ruen vi dew in aof te cdhrnoiucg al htnod te efp in uib ti l o is nhsedanbdytuhsiusaltliyme ta kpee ri tohd re ceanorvam ry orceonm si odn er tahbs ly t , o develop, but t ( h1e9 75 W ). o O rld th er Mseotuerocreosl , osguicchalasSOurbgraanhim za atn io ynam ( ( W 19 M 67 O ) ) , d th e e fi ci teinmciyn . gFoorfextahmep le in , i a ti a si t g io n n if ic o an f the de p p re ecnidpiin ta gtioonndGl. l an (1 tz 98a0n ) d , K an at dzW (1 i 9 lh 7i7 te ), aSnadndG fo lradnt ( z19 ( 7199 ) 8 , 5 D ), raccaunpbeetm th aenywilnotcearlesse . as Hoonwm ev aeyr have few, itfdarnyyp , eriod during consulted for a thorough discussion of the difficulties into the growing seaso , n , ifth th eisim de pfaicctisenm cy im cpoancttisnufeosr in dDer fi onu in gghtdrhoausghbte . en grouped by type as follows: w qu iinctkelrysseianscoenlroew su l p ts r ec in ip itation during th ay magnify meteorological, hydrological, agricultural, and socio­ rates, leading to deficien lo twsosiol il mmoo is itsutruereerfeac ll haarngdeeex co pl nao in msic th e ( W re illahtiitoensahnidpbGeltawnetezn1 th 9e8s5e ) . vaF ri ioguusret yp 1 e .4 s pla M nti entg. at spring of drought and the duration of the event. Droughts express eeodro so lo le gliycaolnt ( hoer ba csliismo at fotlhoegidceagl) r ee droofudgrh yn t es iss

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a (o m ft oeunnti ) n an cdom th p e arison to som inten duration of tehenodrrmyaplero io r d. avTeh ra ugse , b cu y l ti a v lt aetr io in ngprtahcet ic cerso . p, genotype, planting date, and m th u es sesid ty ef iann it d io ndsu . raM ti eotneoarroelotghieca key characteristics of Agriculture is usually the first economic sector to phe t be considered as region spe lcid fi rcosuignh ce ttdheefiantim tio onss ­ abreeao ff f e te c n te dqub ic ykd ly roduegph le ttbeedc , aeusspeec so ia illlymiofis th tu erepesruipopdl ie osftsaotm io ric cendaoerfen diti ini c ti l o im on astethraetgriemseu lt dienpe deficiencies of precipi­ moisture deficiency is associated with high tempera­ on the ns differentiate me n te doernotl . ogFiocraledxraomupglhet , tduurreisngan th dewgirnodwyincgon se d a it sioonnsi . s T cr h it e ic a ti l m in in tgheofdertaeirnm fa i l ­ llm es asgn th abna si ssom of e th sepencu if m ie bderthorfesdhao ys l with precipitation nation of impacts. Crop or forage yields may be nor­ (e.g., itude of the deficiency over so dmreap th e e ri rod th o an f ti t m he etm im al eloyr ( i a .e b . o , vceo in ncoirdm in aglwdiu th ri n cr g i ti acadlrpohueg no hltog if icraalinsfta ag ll esi ) saOsrm ga unc fo h r Britain, fifteen days, none of which received and effective (i.e., low intensity and high soil infil­ in thos iz aeats0. rieogni215 on 93m6m ]) . oSfupcrh ec a ip idteaftiinoint io [B n ri is ti suhnrReaailn is ftailcl trat H io yndrroaltoeg ). ical droughts are associated with the effects c se oam so mno al n . an M d os etxst where precipitation distributi m en e d te eodropleorg io ic daslw dr i o th uoguhttrd ai enff in al oln is of periods of precipitation shortfall on surface or sub­ relate actual precipitation depa itio a n re slsaukre fa cleevw els a , tegr ro su upnpdlwya ( tie .e r) ., rsa tr th ea emrftlhoawn , rweistehrvpor ir eca ip nid ­ a ti mmoeun sc tasleosn . H monthly, seasonal, wa rtteurreyse ar t , ooraavnen ra ugaeltHay ti dornolsohgo ic rt aflald ls r o ( uDgrhatcsuapreetusaul. al1 ly 98o0u , t K of le pmheaSse1o9r8l7a ) g . are Aegqruiaclu ly lt uvraarliuam ble a . n perceptions of these conditions tdhreo ug o h cc ts u . rrM en e c te eoroof lo g m ic e a te lod ro ro lo uggihctasl re asnudltfargorm ic u p lt ruerca i­ l m on etperoercoilpoigtiacta io lddrroouugghhttto li n a ks various characteristics of pitation deficiencies; agricultural droughts are largely and potential nesvhaopro ta tr gaenss , gdriifcfuelrteun ra cles im bpea tw cts, focusing the result of soil moisture deficiencies. More time deficits, and piration (ET), seoeinlawca tu te arlien la o ps th es erbceo fo mrpeopnreenctispio ta fttihoenhdyedfr ic oileongciiceasla sy re s te d m et e (e c . tge . d , cdheapreancd te ern is tto ic nsop re fvoa rt i h li . ngAw plant’s demand for water is reservoirs, groundwater). As a result, impacts are out growth, and s t he ofphtyhse ic al sp eeactih fi ecrcpolnadnitt , i ons, biological of phase with those in other economic sectors. Also, the soil. and biological p it rsopsetratg ie esooffw riv a e te rs r ) i n is hoyfd te ro nlougsiecdalfo st rom ra ugletispy le st eam nd s ( ceo .g m ., preets in er gvopiu rs r­ , dorfocu ro gphst sh Aonu ld opaecrcaotu ional definition of agricultural poses (e.g., power generation, flood control, irri­ example, adted fi icfifeen re tnstub st natge fo srotfhe cr voap riable susceptibility gation, recreation), further complicating the sequence stage wil soil moisture idneavneleoaprm ly egnrt. o w Fo th r a in n d th q es ueansttiofriacgae ti osnyso te f m im sepsaccatlsa . te Csodm ur pientg it idornoufg or htw , aatnedrrseoq il u ir m em oi lsthuarveeliist tle su impact on final crop yield if top-conflicts between water users increase significantly. moisture en ctosn . ti Hnouw es e , v ffi ear ci , einft th teodm ef e ic eiten early growth The frequency and severity of hydrological drought result. substantial yie c ld y o lo fsss ub m so aiyli ( s19o6f6 te ) n de dfeifniendedaadtrotuhgehtr iv yeerarbaassionnescian le . whW ic hhiptphlee the The impacts of drought are crop specific because a ru gngo re ff g . atLeow ru -n fl oofwfifsre less than the long-term average betw m ee onstcrw op ea s. thPelra -s netn in s g it idvaetepshaenndolm og aitcuarla ti s o ta ngepserv io a d ry stfiomremapney ri osd tr efaam lls s . bIefqu th eenca ie cstuhaalvfelobweefnordea te srem le icnteeddahlisgohv te a m ry p between crops and locations. A period of hydrological drought lioswc on a si cdeerrtead in tothbreesihnop ld ro , gr th es esn . d se rnysic ti ovnedi era g ti roonts ur wt hmeasy tr ecsositnhca id teocw cu it rhsiancarsis ti occailatw io enatw stage for one he it r h -b Hio li w ty e v th ear, ttm he usntubmebeexrco ee fddeadystoanddeftihneelaevheyldorfop lo rgoibcaa ­ l c ca ri n ti coafltesn ta rgeedu fo crea th neotrh is ekro cr fodpr . o A cr gorp ic while missing a drought period is somewhat arbitrary. These criteria ught ium lt pua ra cltpolnancn ro in pgs will Tvhaeryibm et p w ac etesnso tr f e am hy sda ro nldog ri ivcearl ba dsr in osu . ght in an

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upstream portion of a river basin can also extend For example, the supply of some economic good ldo ownstream as reduced streamflow may result in (e.g., water, hay, hydroelectric power) is weather n lo o c we tateirorxness , erevvoeinratnhdouggrhoum ndwater levels at downstream dependent. In most instances, the dema ist in this portion oef te tohreolboagsiicna . lRde ro duug ct h io tndsoe in sagn oo d d /o irsipnecrrecaasp in it gaacsoansru es mup lt tioofni . n T cr heearse in fo grnpd for tha e, opdu ro la utg io hnt reservoir and groundwater levels in downstream could be defined as occurring when the demand for tppuob rt liiocns of th duction, wraetcerre basin e at siuopnp , l ie msa , y h re ysdurlote in s transportati loenc , terr ic io us p o im w pacts on that good exceeds supply as a result of a weather-ot agricultu erre , parnod ­ rceelpatteodfsdurpopu ly ghstho su rt p fa plol rt ( sSatnhde fo srtd ro n1g97s9y ) m . b T io hsiissctohn at ­ m str heearms ectors. Conflicts between upstream and down­ exists between drought and human activities. Thus, 19 a9n4yfr wa o iv retrerb use an eaxsa in rss may mpl ienftrhree su U lt, as has been the case in the incidence of drought could increase be om th nei te MdisS so ta utreisR ( isveeerBOapsp in e ) r . cchha an ng gee in in so th ci e e ta flrevquu ln en er cayb il o it fytthoewpah te yrsischaolcaeuvseenot, faaw In h te errneartiivoen rs altrw an astceernddisnpau ti te osnaolfb te onrdaerriss , e su in chsiatsu atio rtages, or Middle East or between the United States ina th nesb ov o e th rg . r For example, nd increas aezs in o g il cea ro nsd io e n cr epao se oran la im nd a -l ucsaer ry pr in ac g tice , which exacerbates th ceaipsacsiu ty chanads Me T xi hceo . discussion up to this point has focused on the a es npdecviu al llnyerraeblielv it aynttoin fu t s ure droughts. This e m xa p m ac ptlseo is fodn is ste inctions between the types of drought during its Africa, Australia) and e in miaarre id a s re ogfiohnis ll y ( e o .g r ., sl Soopu in th g phase t or development pha drough otfd ty rpoeusgm ht a , y th deififnetre . rsree . l a During the termination terrain (e.g., Lesotho). understanding the termin Faitg io u ti roe nships between these During drought onset, agricul n tu p1h . a4se is sao ls fodurso ef uuglhitn .

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IPnad lm ex e r (P Darlomuegrh1t Sev United States, an 9d6t5hea ri n ty dI1n9d6e8x , aAnldl Crop Moisture et al. 1987). On the other hand, it is indeed ra e Yield Moistur eey In 1d9e8x4 ) ( Jionsetheetedv ro er uygyhetanr. oFttooreexxiasmtipnlea , pFo ig rt uiroen1o .5 f th il e lu ssetrcao te usnttrrieesfo in r al. 1991 hat in tiinve th ly enU ew ) in the Philip ni tienddeSxtatth es atisistpgia ne he iSnstiaanngndid elsew anrcdriezaesd in h g ere. Pr epcopAu ipit la re ri ltay ­ tdhreouU gh ntitiesdofSttean te g s, retahteerp th er acnen1t0agpeerarceeanta . f T fe hcu te s d , th beyI1n9d9e5x ) . (SPI), developed by McKee et al. (1993 ation governments of these larger countries are more drough Atisdiisncculsusd io ed nionfc se li v m er aatliccihnadpitceerssfionrtm hi osnvio to r a in ngdaec st caubsltio sh meedda to dealing with water shortages and have in Part III (Monitoring and e lume actively. For n sm ianlf le ra rsc tr ouucn tu tr riees, toitriesspmoonrde , l a ik lb el eyit th re a -t n lo igqiuceasl ) . inFdo ic reas , csoemepOalriid so ap noo ( f1s9 ev 8e5raarl ly p op wualranr in mge te te ocrh o­ ­ tuhseuael ntire coun ). scale ly anroem gi aoln ie asltrpyhm en aoymbeenaaff -e cttheedysrienscueltdrfo ro u m gh ltasrgae re -dur A at n io o n th . eDrrdoiusg ti hntgsuu is shuian ll gyrfeeqau tu ir reeaomfidnr im ou ugmhtof is t its that become es ta in b li asthm ed o sp ahnedr ic p er csiirsctulfaotr io n p er piaotdtse rn osftcoontthirneueemfoonr th msotnothbsecoormeyeeasrtsa . bl T is hheedmbaugt then cwaon mo Fnrtohms, sae as p o la nns, n o in r longer. drought impacts is closely related t nitude of teristics of drought ghapveerssp er eicotu iv sei , mtphle ic astp io a n ti s a . lNcahtairoancs ­ tohnesedtuorfattihoenporfectihpei ta etv io e n nt . shTohre ta g fi e o , tih ts eitn im te ing of the should know the probability that drought may simul­ dr ve-year ( n1s9i7 ty 9 , -a 8n3d ) r ta enge io onuss ly w a it f h fe in cttah ll eiorrbsoervdee ra rs l m an aj dordcervoep lo -p procdounctiinng ­ y th eiosusge ht in northeast Brazil is a good case in point. In gencies if such an event were to occur. Likewise, it is du arrisngirn ie tsh th oefcyleaas rs, 1979 and 1980 were both drought important for governments to know the chances of a sonal rain e fa lplritnocsiipcaslernasieny ( i s .e e . a , so a significant deficiency regional drought simultaneously affecting agricultura tals were slightl n y ) . a b In ov 1e9n8o1r , m th ael, sbeuat ­ pnreoad rb uyctn iv aittiyonisnotnhew ir hocm ou tnhte ry yaarsew de e p ll e n as deandtjafcoernftooodrltdhreo ug te hmt. po Irnal 19 d 8 is 2 tr , ib tuhtei on ra in re fa slul lte to d t al isnwaegrrei cu ble tu lo ral supplies. In some inst normal, but the temporal distribution of precipitatio wnfdrroomugnhetam rb i y ti gnaattiioonnss , tr iagtneagny ces, a nation’s primary was conducive to crop development. Agricultural drought may have signif o ic ri nmgatyhebel ik to e li ihmopoodrtthfaotodaw im e p re a ct fsow llo e w re e d le ss bya dv th er ese. mTohset se ant regional impa sefvoeurre ‘d drroouugghhtt ’ yyeeaa rs r w fo oord ld w su ipdpelioers . inLtihkeewpirs in e, citphaelgorcac in u -r e re xnpcoer ti onfgdnrco ts ugohntm (1 a9t8 ic 3 ) ago ri fcu th lt e u ra plre im vi poaucststw (M en atgya -f lih ve years, with dra­ such as occurred during the ENSO event of 1a9t8 ions, aes et al. 1988). (Glantz et al. 1987, Glantz e2-3 cha D ra rco te urg is httiscs. al T so hedair ffer in terms of their spatial nificantly alter a developing cou tnatlr . y’ 1s9a9c1c ) e , ssmtaoy fo si ogd ­ e sh viofltve fr ogm ra dsueaalsloyn , a to ndser as affect ea esgoino . nIsnoefdb lar m ge ayrxism ev uem re idnrt ought from donor governments. as Brazil, China, India, the Unit ceodunS tr tiaetse , e n su si cthy

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ddirroeucg te hdteavt en re ts duec it in of the hazard or a h re egrtthhe ro u ri g sk haasb so e c tt iear te udndweirtshtafnudtiunrge duction in vulnerability, or both. b ei can t es t r siusltthoefn actual his be human-in adtuucreadl . ortoern ical event. Disasters can diction, monitoring, mitiga G ti roev at i e ro r nmental causes and greatly reduce the frequency n a , n an em d d se pr pehp asis verit ayreodfnoens na stpucrra e­ danlv re o isasters. Many llautm ed epd ro is vaisdtee rs doofctuhmee case studie in dnetvae ti loonpio ng f s included in this countries. pre avnido us d d ev ro e u lo gphetd -e rm ly iassessment refers to the occu m rr aetnecseofotfhedrcoou st gshat. ndac Im lo ti psos ns aecsttsashsa ar otciaalegtle ow for classified as economic, social, and environmen etn

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ahcutm io annslairfee , m pr oosptee rt f y fe , c a ti nvdep if roddo uctive capacity. These is a critical element of the hydrological system. fervoem nt . o T ne hena ty tu preaslohrafzoarrmdstoofam no it n ig eaitn io nadavcat nce of the Information on the status of snowpack conditions can m ther. Droug iv hitt -i reeslavtaerdyfporroevciadsets co onfsb id e e lo ra w b -le noardmvaalncse tr dealm ea f d lo t w im aend fo rrerseelr ia vbolierf th ro it m ig ati e in tshioosne act diou u s se io dnfsoraroet , h e for the most part, different levels. gation is the indaetnutrie fi coaf ti ohran za artd ural hazards because of •Monitoring and early warning refers to activities with previous droughts a n of t . heAifm ir psatcsttsepa ss in ocm iat i e ti d ­ tdheacti si pornovm id aekeirnsfo at r m al a l ti l o ev neltsho at ftchaenobneseutsoefddtroouaglhetr . t w th ietshefium tu praectds ro (a ungdhtotehvee rs n ) daarnea li skseelsysm to enbteoafsw so hcei ther This information can be used by planners, emergency actions can be identifie n d ts. From this point, spec aitfeidcimmapnlaegmee rs n , tpporlo ic g y ra amnmdedsecainsd io pnom lic aikees rs th , aatnwd il o l th he elrpsttooo fu f t ur im epdarcotus gh atsseovceinattse . d Pa rttoIV re edm uc pehatsh is eesim th peacr ts of reduce the risk associated with the hazard. Moni­ geographical settings as wwie th ll adsrom ug et hhtodionl og viaerasinoguest to doa ri cat tia ng activities include the collection and analysis of quantify these impacts. Part V considers adjustment user o , ndo at fadaptraodpu ro cdtudcetvsetloopdm ec einsti , onanmdak th e e rs caonmdm ot uhneir ­ a an nddaPdaarpt ta V ti Ioncosn tr caetn eg tr iaetsesemopnlopyreedpatroed re ndeu ss cem im et phaocd ts ­ h in aza s r . dDsabtuat in a cludes not only physical data related to olo the definit lisoon so ocfiavlualn ne drabb io il lio ty g . icA al d co a m ta ptrheahtenassisv is ethgaavtg io ie n s , pr iong st ria tu m ti m on es alaanrdr an a g ct eim on esn , ts a /c nadpapco it liiecs ie , s miti­ drought monitoring system would include the collec­ imp e a ct bseo en f dr oorugchotu . ld be employed to reduce th th aetp ti roenc ip o it f a tio cl n i ) maastow lo el gliacsals tre daam ta f lo ( w e. , g r . e , se trevm oi prearnad tu grreouanndd ­ t • oPrienpcarreeadsneestshe re fleervseltoofprreedaidsiansetsesraocr tivities designed w se a n ter levels, soil moisture, snowpack, and remo improve oper­ cast ssedodfataagfrriocm satellites. This information is useful in ftoerley ­ aan ti on eamlearngdenicnys tit ( uet . igo ., naelacra ly p ab w il air ti neisng fo rsryess te p m on s, d in ogpetro ­ itnod ri i n ce gsatnodte ra acru ly ltw ur aarlnianngdtehcyhdnrioqluoegsi , cianlcldurdoiungghtth . e M us oeno i­ f u at sieofnuallfpolrands) e . no Fto in rgdrpor ught, contingency plans are them in a histo kriccu al rrent d ogrammatic responsibilities; contex ro t, u is g h th teco su nbdjie ti cotnosfaPnadrttIoIIv . iew p im ol p ic rioevsinbgetiw nf eoernmaatn io dnw fl iotw hi nonlesveev ls e ri o ty, im and coordination between levels of gov fergnomv pac eenrtn ts m , ean nd . t; d •P ec re is diiocn ti / opnolriecfyermsatkoerascw tiv it it hieasdtvhaantcepd ro fvoirdeecauss ts eros and D f the m sh a ro l ught i oul pdarntoosfan th i e nsidi t be vi ecw li e m ou aste nat d as m of ural hazard tha erveilrytuaalp ly hyaslilcarletg is pihoaensn no . omIrt ­ o ­ a fo crcm ur s r , ebnu ce tporfodbraobu il g it hyt . These forecasts can take many enon. Rather, drought is the result of an interplay p n re ddi in ct tieonnss it . yoFrorseecvaes ri ttyo ) fiso ccurrenc accu ursaucay ll yiaes so (t c im iat e e , ddw ura s highly viatrh ti o th n e , w be attw er eesnua natural event and the demand placed on between natural iable be consi pdpelryedbyrh el uam tiv aen -u to se ssoym ste emlso . nDg-rtoeurgmhtasvheo ra u g ld eidm ro puogrh ta ts ntincom ns oishtapzaarrtdssoafntdhe is w pa orrtlidc . ulLae rl deration for drought fore aydltiimm it eed is f a or condition of balance between precipitation and so d casts as well n , eva M po atnry an dsepfiirnaittiioonn . s of drought exist; it is unrealistic a in ncdorepco is riaotnem th akers are given ample opportunity to to expect a universal definition to be derived. Th the imple imseinntfao ti romnato io fnmiin ti g p at liaonnn in pr gogsrta ra m te mge ie s s . sDpreocu ti g ve htc as anfboe ll ogw ro s: u pe mdetbeyortoylpoegiocfald , isc hiypd li rnoalroygipcearl ­ , c lo agse ts reof is m al estoeoarno lo im gi pcoarl ta d n ro tudg is httinacn ti don th boe se tw oefenhyfdorroe -­ ian gric ical drought, especially in regions where snowpack so cco io rup ltur ec o o ra ntaels , d an omic if d f fe re snotc ioeco actors ipnhy it s n ic oaml, ic b . s defini io E lo agcihc al, d is a cipline tion. It mu nsdt /o be r

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iam cc peapcttesd . T th haut the importance of drought lies in its cch at airoanc te srp is etciicfsisc definitions should be impact or appli­ in anodrdreerflteoctbuenu iq s u ed eirnegainonoaplec ra li t m io anta ic l mo T de hebythdreece is io cnham ra ack te ers. ristics that differentiate one sdpraotu ia glhetxf te ro nmt. Iann te o n th si etrya re re fe risntteonstih ty e , ddeugrraete io o n, fparned ­ acs ip so it caita io te n shortfall and/or the severity of impacts linked to d th wei th d ur th at e i on deo pa frtthue re . evIenntte . n D si r ty o ug is htcslonso el r y ­ m bu atl ly mtaayketh tw en o p to ertshirsetefomrom nt ohnsth to sboercoym ea erse , s a tablished lthough tchheanigne te f n ro si m ty m an odn th sp tao ti amlocnhtahraocrtesreao so fnth to eseevaesnotn . will clas Tsh if e ie d im apsa ct escoonfodm ro ic u , gh so tca ia re l, d a iv nedr se enavnid ro gnemneen ra ta ll l y . Dra tchuepd , e J Impacts ripple through the economy and may linger fIomrpyaecatrssaaf re te rotfh te enterrem fe in rr aetd io n to ofatshedid re ro ct ugo ht episode. Because of the large number of groups and rec in odniorm ec itc . o se fcittosrs im a p ff aecc ts te , d i ts byspdarto ia ulgehxtt , e n th t, eannodntsh tr eucdtiu ff riacluln ti aetsur in e quantifying environmental damages and personal hoaf rd dsrhoiu ps g , httheisp re d c if ifsiecuclatl . cu D la rto io unghotf th y e ea frisnafnrceiq al uecn os tl tys occur in clusters, and thus the costs of drought are not evenly distributed between years. It s so ig c n ie if tiaclavnutlrnaetrea . bility to drought is escalati anpgp , eaan rs dtahtaat It is imperative that increased emphasis be placed on mitigation, preparedness, and prediction and ear warning if society is to reduce the economic an ldy e it nsvp ir eorn so mneanl ta hlarddasm hi apgse . s associated with drought and linary cooperation and Tha is cow ll i a ll b o re ra qtu iv ir eee in ff t o er rdt is wciitph ­ policy makers at all levels.

Meteorological O

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a - p ( e1r9N6o8 . ) 4 ‘ 5, Washing

, Sinh ty Press. cal Society. ‘Drought management in India: St eto, M. da

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PROSPECTS FOR THE PREDICTION OF METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT

Ropelewski and Folland satellite monitori A comprehensive and widely accepted definition of drought in the

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acroencdeirsnceud ss w ed i th fur ological drough t u . n th d er Weer st ian Chapter 1. This chapter is progress with parts of the epic problem of drought understanding and pr are ndi edi cctonngcearnndedpriendipcrtiinncg meteor­ prediction may finally be within our grasp. from the n ing deficiencies in ip lreaiw nf i a th ll cha A ra ct deirscoufsspiroenc ip o it f a ti dornou ti gmhet se sro ie osn . Etxuarm ns i na tto io nthoefd fr uorm at isoenvserfarl orm owmeaeoklsetxopdeecc ta atd io ens, tfhoorupgehriw od e s em th paht as liasset any long ne season (three months) to a few v ar a g ri uaebd il i ( ty tiomneaslel ri t e im sreev sc eaallessa ( cFo ig muprleex2 . a1n ) d . S ri ocmhemihxavoefp se rae sons, as these have shown the most potential for of the co e m .g p ., o M ne ann ts d elbrot and Wallis diction so far. of the hydrologi c1a9l6c8y ) clteha ar temsaen lf y ­ tem Tphoeradleb si erheatvoi understand similar -i.e., that they our of rainfal alnhdasprbeede ic ntathmeocto iv map ti lnegxtchhuas ra m cte ay ri s h ti acvseoaflam rg aenuynp ar reedfircatcatballeacnodmcphoanoetn ic t , . K an edyfOon rc eeo in f c th li emaetaerlp ie rsetdikcn ti oownnsirnecfeereean rl cyesretcooraderda in hi gsa to urgye . roacicnu fa rrence rainfall time series are (1) was made in administrative chronicles in India written somet lilmaensosmo al fyvearny large extremes, of either sign, in more than two thousand years ago (Kautilya ‘climate’. Tbheeseexta re smde ( l2y ) lpoenrg io adnsd of extremes that can c. BC). Raingauges were needed because it had to 1704 near Bur , ed Foh ll is anmdeaansd Wales- (1970) gives f

have been dubbed thus establish a new been decide al seasonal rainfall rainfall rece

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n ar eegattaikveenco to rr e im la p ti loynsa , p th hy essieca ‘ ltelliencko nnectio key va between ntphaet te lo rn ca s l ’ w (1 a9s7o2n ). tFhoellpoowiinntgosfoemmeeirngc in on gcilsusc iv oentw ai onrekdbiynoLtahm er bsm Gl aapnstzrioeatblael . a1n9d9t1h ) e . widely distributed one (e.g., see (e.g., by Berlage and DeBoer 1960), Professor Jacob pressure f an pdr ec wiapsi ta atiW on a , l ke te r m produced teleconnection Bjerknes at the University of California at Los modes of interannual blcel im to a te idve perature, and surface Angeles made the key step forward by demonstrating nise today, including the South anerrita if nbyi li tthyethlaatrgweestre scale that the atmospheric teleconnection patterns were North Atlantic O Oscillation and c o th g e ­ p eq a u rt atoof ri aalcPoaucp if liecdOmco ea dneaonfdinttheer ac gtlioobnalbaettmwo ee sp nhteh re e was Inaba le d d to it icoanr ry to scb illation. (Bjerknes 1966, 1969, and 1972). It is now clear that of fortunate circu omuste ing a first-rate scientist, Walker other parts of the global ocean also participate in the the art of statistics htaahn is work because of a confluence Southern Oscillation, manifested through changes in matical tool of the ob d se cdeesv . e F lo ir pset, shortly beforehand, sea surface temperature and the overlying atmos­ also a very ab rvational dscriaepnicdelsy . aWsaalkm er atwhaes ­ phe B ri ycctih rc e u la la ti toen. 1970s and early 1980s, climate o st fat ti hse ti cIsnd (W ian alM ker le1 99 m7a ) t . h H em av aitn ic giatn ak ewn ho understood scientists were able to document the relationships gained the oppo ertteuonrio ty lo tgoicc al Departme th netijnob19o0f3h , e h ad ehRyap sm ot uhsesso is neda nd byCaB rp je ernktneers 19 in 8 2, mwoh re odd is e c ta uisls ed (e . tgh . e , m re aqtuhierm ed ata ic a la l rg oepesrta aff capab alreryoofupteh rf is orsm tu idniges, m w an h u ic ahlT So hue th ceorunplO ed sco il cleaa ti n o -n a / tEmlosNpihneoreasvaaricao ti uopnlecdenstyrsetdemo ) n . W ve a ry lk p er raw ct ais able to t m io ankseoanmeax jo te rne si f v fo e rt d a to ta so se lv ts e . tShoeE th NeSeO qu a ( t E or l ia NlP in ac o i / f S ic oiustnhoew rn co Omsm cil oln at liyon re ), f er a r ed p h to ra saesA ra n in oftah ll e , rkaencaalcp ti rvoib ty le m th aotfh pr aed dicting Indian monsoon coined in planning documents for the international by the earl yyfyaecatrosrowfasthtehattwietnh sta taidejru te t st dbe in c om th eep1 os 8s7i0 bl s e . Tmreonpti . caDlO ur cienagntG he lo b 1 al 98A0tsmoasnpdh er 1e99 (T 0s OGaAs ) ereix es p er o i­ flsaurfgfe ic -s ie cnatlence li amr-agtleob va arl ia d ti aotnas . to de hsccre ib n e tu raynd to agnaatlh ys eereom ur p iri ucnadl, e m rs o ta dned ll iinngg , aonfdtthheeo re p ti hcyaslicsa tu l di m es e c in hcarneiassm ed s 192 T3heansdtu1d9 ie 2s4 , bWyaW lk a e lker and others (e.g., Walker aad ss voacnicae te sdinwiutnhdEeN rs S ta O n . diAngdettealielceodndnie sc c u ti sosn io pnao tt ferrencsen in trge lo la b ti aol) nsshuirp fa s ce exp is re te s d su rbeertawnedenB li lsasrg1e9 -s 3c2a ) le s h ( o i. w e. e , d n that the TOGA era (1985-94) can be found in Trenberth patterns -in particular, tphaettIen rn d s ia n an sdum re m gional rain efaarl -l et aTl. h1e 99 i8deanntd if i A ca ll tainone ta o l. f 19 so 9m6. e of the physical v ra aitn io fa nlal. l W ev a id lk eenrc ’s erfeosreatrhcehepxrio st veindceedo th feefr monso an ir osrtgaonbisseorn ­ m rev ec it h a anism ed conne l c is t e io dnsi nt aesrseosct iated with patterns. in A W se a ri lekser’ osENfp SO has st ruedciiepsi ta w ti i o th n g re te alte ly -glo more wHoerbcaal-ls le cda le tpk did no hi tsattthee rn hav Soofuitnh terannual climate variability. complete data sets (e.g., Kiladis and Diaz 1989; expected because, efotrhe re a im e p rn acOt scillatio sons th tahtartemma ig n. htI in unh itia nc alveel ly ar b , e h th einsrReocpoenlfeiw rm sk eida se nvde ra Hlao lp f e th rt et1e9 le 8c6o , nn 1e9c8t7 io , ns ansdu gg 1e9s9 te 2 d ) c so o o rr n e la ptr io ec nispib ta et t w io enenwtehaekepnreed ss uarbeopuatt te th rn esta im nd e m th oene ­ cboynW ne acltkieornsa . ndRootphee le rs w , saknidaindde nt H ifi aeldpeardt di ( t 1 io 9n8a7ltaen le-were discovered. Th y 1989) attempted to improve the usefulness of tele d ­ taitmtehemomsitdodf le thoefetah rl eec tw or ernetliae ti tohncsesnttruernyg , th beuntebdyag th a a in tcdooncnuemce ti notn patterns y work ha ing regions foorfstehaesognlaolbcelitm ha att , eipnreaddidcittiioonnb to y fille Adc in ru c w ia alspaap rt hyosfictahleepxipcltaunrdebteheantfro em rg aoitn ten atio ed . to be a m ls e o re lhyadshroew la itn io gnssh ta itp is stiw ca ilthEN EN SO SO -p rtehca ip t it w at eiroenhliignhklsy , t te hleecSoonuntehcetrinonOp sc aitltleartn io s. n A ju rsetvaisewaonfk fo nrow th leedogbesaeb rv oeudticdoennstiisftieendttfhreom se aespoin so sdaend to reegpiiosn od seo . f T th h e ey g p lo a b rt eicw ul haerr ly physical explanation precipitation was associated with ENSO in at least 75 e

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eppeirsocdeenst . oTfhtehequm as oir -e glm ob aarlkesd ca lEeN se SaO warm ture (SST) patterns associated wistuhr fa E ce Ntaenmdpceorlad ­ R bution of rainfall as a functio SO that sta ogpees le w of skEiNaSnOdcHaanlpoefr te tn1b9e9no5i ) d . efBEeNcS au Ose st tah te e ( eea .g., influence these rainfall patterns appear consistently in more before typical ENSO-ntified a season r o ly rfmoarnryecreencten de tcsa tu d d es ie , s P -ar kee .g r ., anHdsF iu o n ll ganadnd19N9e1wseilnlc1e9t8h3ereepc is oogdneith io ansiomfp th oer ta e n ar tlyprsetdarg el easteodfdarodu ev gehltospcionmgm EN en ScOe, late Idne in nt eitfe ic eanttihonc entury. However, one of th ic e t ive m value. precipitation relatio onfs hip tshepsreo vid ceo ain limitations sntsh is etecnlte are E st NiSnO di -­ E ac NcS or O d -in b g as teod th s e ea h so is ntaolr ic parlerdeicco ti rodn , EsN ch SeOmeissaicst iv tehaot, fce ation that seasonal meteorological drought in quite its warm or cold phases only about half the tim ienux se te fnuslisvkei ll a r ( e i. aes , ionftthheehg is lo to bre ic m al aryecboerdp , reEdN ic S ta O b -l reelw at i e th d S co in ld ce 1e9p0 is 0 o , dteh er yeeahrasv , e b ac eceonrtdhiinrg ty w to a rm th aendSnoiunteh te e e rn n . idtnryth con he aepspedroa it prie on r a ia s s ). occu te Fsiegaursroeat2 leas ns, .3 whsth7o5wsp ere p e th rocse recip entre of the time Osc itatio gi nondse , fiacn it dsJSoonue il s l at ( i1o9n87 In ) dex-based criterion of Ropelewski and are strongly associated with the warm or cold phase equa th to errinalPOas . c The cif il ilca tio clos se n a su Iendreex la tio (S n O sh I i ) pbaentdw ee cne nt trhaelo tu freEsNiSnOth -e i t . reo ., piw ca alrm ea sotrPcaoclid fi c s . eaAlstuhro face tempera­ d rface temperature anomaly may not occur consistently with every wuagrhmdorroucgoh ld tFu ig r u in durin re ggm2.4o all . s t su Ioffptr he twentieth century is illustrated in ENSO episode as appropriate, these regions do have a dr ch E ec N ip SiO ta ti eopn is owdeerse , sbku il tfun ll oytportehdeircw ta ibslee , tch le aanr -l n y or i m de anltsie fi aesdo na ilncco re nadsie ti d o ns p . r T ob haebliiln it k y wi o th fEdN ri SeOr-r th es eouotuigrm ht p ce e s . H re odw ic etv io enw managed r, ecvroouplsdm on ulsytbbeeppolsasnitbeldeaabnoduwtahtaelrfcba il n it ybedifso tr rim bu al tiisoend by ca ery year. s condi ltciuolnaatl in ognptrheecisptiattaet io onfEpN ro SbOa . ­ m ho awneyvedrr , ouEgNhSt-Op ro is nenortegtihoensonAlsy is disc . The farce to la r u ssed tiv in el f y lu ebnec lo in w g , T hi h st uosripcrae ll c y ip o it bas ti eornvepdr edic recent shif ttison in sctahnebperobb as aebd il iptuyredliysto ri n ­ g at a m in ossipnhu er nedesryssttaenmditnhg ro oufgch li m EN ate S O as satucdoiueps le h d as olceedan to -

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te a c ri hanbiiq li ues draw on many aspects of recorded past cast skill is that the statistical techniques generally cao ss r o re cliaattie ty d w in i th thEeNS cl O im . aItne system, not just those perform poorly in northern spring, with cross­ forecasts o , nanaunmd be mruo lt fipo le ad li dnieta io r n to simple linear validated anomaly correlations <0.6 for forecasts even operational use. These ttohoelrssitn at c i sti rceagl re to ss oilosn -a braes ed just one season ahead and <0.3 for forecasts two antianalogs (Livezey lude analogs an idnd se aam so pnesdapheerasd is . te S n im ce p l ( eapceorm sis btiennacte io onfo th fepeSrS si Tss te , nocrethaenidrCClain mate Normals ( OaC nd N ) B a ( r H ns utaonng 19 e8t8a ), l . O1p9 ti 9m4a ) l , tcilm im eao to fltohgeyy ), easrh . ow just as much, or more, skill at this l P in re eio se n n ic d al Correlation Analysis (CCA) (Barnett and Even if the statistically based SST forecasts were War adrda is ocrrfiemr in 1a9n8t7a ) n , a ly asnids (M eig a e ry novnecatnodrSatnoarleyy si s19a8n5d , p th earn fe -c pte , rf heocwtreevlear ti , o n th sh e ip hsisbteotrw ic eaelnrS ec SoTrda no sh moaw li sesla es nsd -d beav se e d lo ponndnFeoulrlaalndne1 tw 99 o 1). More complex methods precipitation even for regions with a strong ENSO skill scor eedso (e f . g o . p , er Lao ti nognaertksal. ha1v9e also recently been influence. In such regions, precipitation anomalies these tools has been mar lgpirneacl ip in it 9a7 ti ) o . nIn fo general, the typically show a consistent ENSO relationship in 75-much more skilful in parts of the t h tr eopeixc tr raetcrao sts using 80 per cent of the ENSO episodes this century. How­ et al. 1993). In the extratropics, statist s ic a (e l .g p . i , cWsba ut ever, even the best performing statistical SST pre­ offer little encouragement for more reliable m dr e o th uogd rd s b di e c tw tio enen sc ohbes mes have ht Pacific SST oefrv0e .8 d -0 a .9 ndcp ro re sds-ivca te li for two se d d ate aso t n ro dspa ic caolr re e la atsitoen rn s p cu re r d re ic nttiosn ta steexocfepEtNwShOenoursw ed it h in EcNoS nj Ounfcotrieocnasw ts i th (e . tgh . e , n co orrrtehleartn io nsuomfm th er e through fall. Thus if th hee ad an ionmtahleysB ta atrin st sitcoanldarnodu gh Stmp it rhe di 1c9 ti 9o6n ) . t ha Wter el nao te w s to fo cEuNsSoOn , m th ieghotbr served SST igs iv 0 e . n8irnegs io tr noanlgpE re N ci SpO ita tyieoanrsw , w ith e a in ndpatrh ti ecuplraerd . iction of central and eastern Pacific SST pitation eawsio th na abn ly o m ex a p ly ecctotrorem la atk io e such year nps re odfi0 ct . i6o -n 0 s . 7ofdpurreicnig ­ icsorcro el nastiisosn -o i v .e e . r , a in ll aybeo ar ustwhialllfboefsau ll byse ta a n rs t . iaT ll hyeleasvse ; rtahgies tent with experience (Barnston and Smith

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a in ff teec ra tcm tio o n re srbey al ist dictions into glob ian ic se m l at r m ti ondg elling of ocean-atmosphere model to a new equilibrium (e.g., Figure 2.5). This give a direct forecast of o th seph th e e ri sce ci S rc ST anom precipitat u io la n ti o (e n . gma ., o ly Jdpiee ls re­ new t a to l. lciibrrciuul oc m ati eoannsm ta o te deilnu tu n r ti nldirtivreesacahg es lo b a al atmospheric 1994). output . toWd in ri dvesttrhee ss ofc ie ela ds are taken fro m (n e th airs ) meoqdueil ­ imp A ro lt vheom ug ehn ts t h in estehedsekv il elloofppmreendtisc ti hnagvEeNrSeO su -l rteelda te idnw et h al. 1994). This is a n fo m rm o del again and so on (Ji SSTs, their greatest contribution has been in diag­ sep earrea te t he c om at pmoonsepnhtes re ofantdheoocfeacnouaprleedhamnodd le e d ll in agsn ev oesri , ngsotm he ecroeu se p a le rc d ocean-climate h has in a d tm ic o at sepdhetrhee sy psotteemn . t ia Hlofw or ­ a cl timmoastpehm er o ic demltohdaetlhacsan th ebeadavasnttaatgee -o of-f th sey -s a te rmt . g lo TbhaelaCpapnle ic aatn io dnsZeobf ia kENESNOSOSSSTSTprperdeidcitc io ti nosns -h aev .g e ., b e th en e p el reem di ecn ti tns. g Al w te o rn rl a d ti w ve id ly e , it prm ec aiyp it j at au us itonbeatnodm atically u a stati o st tihcearlt in seZdi as the b hat f m ur btahbewre asis f si g ( nCia fi noerse ta tta is l t . ic cant prog 1a9l9f4o ) r . ecH ast ress requi orwseovfemr, a ize yield model (e.g., Barnett et al. 1993). of es the in it clsueseim on s thre Feorufsu ef r u th lerrev in ie f w or smoaf ti o se n a , stohneal re fo ad re ecras is t in d g ir : ecPtaeldmteoro oc f th etahnee mea ic an annunalac nnual d at y m cl oesp ( c i. yec ., lecionuptlhiengmboe dels. In heric fields inst tewaedenotchleusf io ul nla (1 n9d98A ) n . derson (1994), Davey (1996), and Carson sainnof their the cmeatlh ie e s ) oc heaas ni tcu rn aendd out be exceedingly difficult

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scto th ara ti rsetc ic te s d ( M mo OdSe ) l . f S or m ec it ahstadnad ta are called model output 1994). The state of ENSO is only one of many factors obs terevveedn SS gi T v en a perfect SRSoTp el feow re sckais ( t 1 -9 9i7 .e ) ., shtohweu (K se r d is hn to aKfuom re acrae st t al t . h1e99I5n ) d . ian summer monsoon m to oid ts elEuNsS ed O -a r t -N t C he E P cu rrent operational atmospheric Ward et al. (1993) discuss the useful level of skill In their study e , la ftoerd ty r -a fi i need vne fa lylspastu te brsn ta snfto ia rlpa ra d c ju ti sctamleun se ts . m of a d tr eop in ic a re l al n o ti r m th e A by f ri tchaenU fo KreM ca e st tse or th ol aotgihcaavleOb ff eiecnee (h xianm dc in aesd ts ) fo bra se th d e on specif e ie a d rs ( oofbsseeravseodn ) alSS fo Trew ca esrtess re in la ctei on 1s9h8i6p . swTih th esgeloabrael ly ladrigsetlry ib ubtaesdedSSoTn , SS st Tatiin st itchaelm ea o ch d el sism imulation wapserrieopde at 1e9d50 th -i 9r4 te . enEa ti cmh es s , e w as hoenraelpSoonue th n t. A O tla vnetrict , hean la dstade re claad ti e v , eltyhesm re aalll -ti EmNeSfOo re ccoam sts ­ u initial co unldaitt io io nnswatso st easrttiemdatwe ith th e s lig mha tl gynid tu if dfee ren otfvhaalviedah te addahisnkdic ll asstismim lar adteotwhiatthotbhtea in seadme fr osm ta t c is rto ic sasl -v av anrp ia re ti doincs ta ble and therefore random atmospheric methods. The chief limitation to further progress is a rai enrfaag ll edf or tion th ca elcm ul oad te e l. thTehebtehsitr te meondseilmeus la ti t m io antseao re flsaecaksoonf ( gJluonbeal th tr roopu ic gahlSSeSpTtefm or beecra ) s . tsAvcaclu id ra f te orfo th re ecawse ts ttgylpoibcaall ly v , a a ri l th ea ocuhghgitvheen seasonal SST pattern. Quite of ENSO would help, but would in most years be well, it sho at w io ends in sem as oodneall re ra piln ic fa altledpa th tt eeronbs se qruvietdeifn al sluffo fi rceiceanst. tsAatrmeoaslp so heu ri scedd , ynbaumtitchaely -m oondleyl -h baavseedusreaf in ul ­ T re hgu io s ns fo rofptrheec ip w it s a ystematic or tlido , n -t rhee la tmesdpaa ti pap ll l y ic var odel pre a d ti i o ct nys in g in biases. skill with lead times of a month or less before the require some kind ions wmoaun ld y r th ai antf al hlusm ea asnoin ty ( Fhoa ll sanidncerteaals . ed1 99 th 1 e ). Istuisscaelpsto ib p il o it s y si b o le f g ki ennderoaf te bdi as byadajuM stm OS ofteacdhjnuisqtumee . n T ts h , e perhaps those tropical west Africa to drought through the pro­ production of operat einot places a huge bnue rd ed en foorntthhiesg co re vsesrivoevreerdu re c c ti eonntd in ecnaedaers -. coTahsitsalcw ha e n st geAfirn ic a th nefolraensdtM because each time the m na oldd el y n is a m ch ic aanlge fo d r , eacansetwmsoedteo ls f s (e u . r g fa ., ceElb ta ohuinrdaan ry dhGaosnbgee1n99s6 ho ) w to nhbayve se v th e e ra lpo au te tnhtoirasla ne O ed S e statistics must be calculated to provide the to weaken the north African monsoon. More studies nneacleys si d sa s ad ojfu ry Msm tm u e lt n id ts e . c T ad h a is l re en qu se ir m es bltehsetgoe ne orbatta io in natnhdetorfopp ic oasls ib nloer th re g A io fr n ic aalnarnatihnrfo al p l, ogaesniwce ll inafs lu efnocr es on fundamental OiSmp st rao ti vse ti m cs enatnsdtuond th eerssecom re osdtehles , nseuecdh fo as r reg W ion ar sdwe it thaml. a ( r 1 gi 9n9a3l ) seaalssoonadlisrcau in sfsaltlh , e a re sk n il eleo de odt . her tahboosvee . related to the flux adjustments, discussed m tim ad eefboy re c th a e st sff real­ UK orM th et eeon ro olro th g e ic aasltOBfrfaizcielsw in ectes1e9 as 8o7n . dro Kungohwt le p d re gdeico ti fonEsNS in O m is a n in ysup ff airctisenotffotrher eg w io o n rl adlT se hviesreisa relatively dry area, subject to intermittent lbeescsaium se p o in rt a th n ese regions its influence is either small or Hastenr dartohuagnhdt. c T ol hleasbeorfao to re rs c a ( set . s g , ., asHw as etlelnarsatthho1s9e95b ) y , p ea ro st foBurnad zil an t than other factors. For instance, north­ are mainly statistical, although real-time dynamical patterns ( lFyo ll iandf lu west A nd eentcael. d frican w 19 b9y1 , H tro ept ic saela so Ant la ra nitn ic fa ll astenrath 1995, WSaSrTeM for eetceaosrtosl og hiacvae ard based on tropi lcbaOlAfefe ic n e . mTahdee st saitn is ctei cal 19f9o4 re ca bsy ts tahreeS1S9T 97 ) i . n In th aeddtirtoipoinc , aplaIrn ts d i of the Sahel are affected by on ENSO SSTs. On tl aanv ti ecraSgSeT , t a ro npoim ca allyAp tl aatn te ti rcnsSaSnTdsF Si o m ll i a la nrd ly , eltocaall . SS 19 T9p1a , tt Bar anns to Onceaannd (P Sam lm ith er11999866 ). , h re agvieonaboofuSt ou tw th ic Aem th e e ri cian , fl aule th nocue gh ofexEtN re SmOeE fo NrStOhs is , A no urstth ra w li eas , tnooftA ab ulsyt ra ilniatih er e ns influence precipitation in such as that in 1982-3, can dominate the circulation Drosdowsky 1993, F n re d th IendA ia uns tr O al c ia enanw north and and precipitation patterns over tropical South ericksen and i B nt aelrgo ( v e. ign . d , A sis m te e n ri t c ly a . h T ig hhe le r v ea el l -t o im f e sk iflol, resc im as itlsarhtaovethhaatdobatac in oend ­

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T cu im rre e n tl Sycahleeasd ) qu aas rte wreeldlaatst he thLeammounltt -i D na oth io e n rt aylEIaR rt I h , odtrhoeurgm ht ajporrem di ocd ti eolnprw ob il llem re s q . u T ir hee the resolution of hOabvseearnva im to p ry o rt oafntCcooluupm le bdiamoUdneilvecrosm ity p . onTehnet, sea lt ehfo fo urgthsp ex hteernes , io onntaogfloorbeaclasdto in mga , in boatnhdth th eseeaorcee dva saonlnacn es diantcm lu odse ­ m in acn lu ydeodf ( t C he a rs toyn pe 1s9o 98 f ) m . ethods discussed above are uomciesamnatacnhdbaettmwoesepnhtehree . fl Fuo xe rsmaatntyhearbeoaus, n d th atr io ie nsoofftthhee rep F li o ca rtE in NgSaOn , d c , ur in re nstom co eupclaesdesm , oidmep ls roav re in cgapoanb le thoefo of frtehaelsie st iwcillalnrde -q suuirrfeacse ig coupling may be ess eenatd ia dli . tiA on ll tshue cc ecsusrroefnetmgpein ri ecraalt / isotn at i o st ficcaolumpe le th dom ds o . dFeo ls rirnesptlain ca ctee , a model parameterisatio nificant improvements in the SST anomaly patterns in the equatorial Pacific that th ry elraeyqeu rs ir , ecd lo m ud osd , erlad im inasp ti oonf , saun rf dacceonpv ro ecce ti sosn es, bound­ have many characteristics in common with observed to a quick solution, but, ro g v iv eemnetnhtesiam re p o li rktealny . N to onye ie o ld flEeN ss SsO uc cceosm sf puolsiin te tsh . eCm ur orreentdim ffi ocduelltspa ro re blceomnso id ferreapblliy ­ imp Iatcsthoofud ld ronuogthbte , they are worth pursuing. ce of the p ca hteirnigcc th ir ecuslpae ti c o if n ic peav tt oelruntsioinnoafgtihve en SESNTSaOndepaitsm od oes . ­ tehxe prospects for im forgotten, however, that not all of However, it is precisely this problem that must be no ctlufsuilv ly eluynodnersse ta a n so pnraolvteidmde ro sc uag le hst . p A re l dictions reside solved. Just as the ‘average’ daily weather is rarely of climate variabilit d y , th th eem re u l is ti aanmnpulaelteo th doeucgahdawles ca dloeo ce bpsteuravleda , idthteo ‘ ucnadneornsitcaanl’ diEnNgS th Oan id aeauissefm ul orceonastcroun ct ­ e2x .1 is c t ) e nc aend -e th .g e . , sien the time series o vidence for its for prediction. To reach their full potential, coupled distributions of rai cnuflaalrl ( cFhiagnugrees2i . n2ftrhae in f p al rlob (F ab ig il uir ty eim nd oidveildsun al eepdas to t E be N S ab O le etpoisroedpe li scaa te ndt he th eeivroleuv ti ooln vi nogfnoefw co duep velopments in data an ). Very recently, extratropical atmospheric and ocean interactions. There is lesdommeoedveildsehnacveeosftd ar etaeld ys t is oaonpdeinn the accuracy The most optimistic expectation is that once that may have a somewhat c ad d a if lfv er aern ia t t io unpstihnisEN fie S ld O . cEoNuSpO le , d th m ey odw el i s ll bheavaeb le cotnoqhueelrped id etnhtei fy chaanld le npg re edio ct ftmheeasiun red by the ocean s character, as other modes of climate variability. This may include Zhang te ertananl. ua1l99 ti 7 m , eFoslc la al neusr fa ( cKeleteemmapne ra et tures, from links between ENSO and the climate system not yet are now beginning to fin ddeatanlu . m1b9e9r8 ) o . M al. od1e9 ll 9e6 rs , m dis ocdoevlesremdaiyntahiediimnpienrv fe ecsttiogbaste io rv nast io onfaplodsastiab . lIemcplriomvaetdem ab e il cih ty anoin sm th seinde th ca edN al otrothmaun lt d i tropic f potential modes that link ocean basins, such as ENSO-and Barnett 1996). There is adlescoad ev aalltiPm ac eifsiccaf le o r ( vari­ related variations of SST in the tropical North Atlantic, ENSO links to rainfall may come an id dengcoed th ep aetnsLoam ti e f rece In n tl aydddiistc io u n ss etdoboycE ea n n fi -e altdmaonsdphMea re y er c o ( u1p9l9 in 7 g ). , new nointutdheeo se fcE ul N ar S O va riitas bility in the str ding generations of models need to include realistic land-southern Europe (R eolpfe -le wes .g k . i , a in ndneonrg Ha th th lp e e rn an dAfm ri acga/ ­ rae tm ali oss ti pchm er oedeclosuopflitnhge . la Snudch su rifm ac peroavnedmie ts ntvsegientvao ti lovneaThheeadp , r m ed aiyctaalbsio lity of ENS rt 1987). and adequate descriptions based on observed data of in Northern Hevm ar iyspohnerdeecOa sp d , rail on ntgiem ( e to s Ba c a ls a a le fse , w e sp se eacs ia oln ly strheep re isne it nitaal tio ve nge in ta t m io ondesltsa te is . c W ur orrekn tl oynbleainndg -s m ur afiancleym 19 e9a5n ) s . (i I . n e ., additio meda et al. driven by the development of coupled models for over several cdheacnagdenes , sis ) n ec a th u lso e la r ‘ itvnyfpairciaalbio li rty in the climate climate change projection over the next century conditional ENSO probability l u fo ernecceassetsxsi . m pe Fpcolteeds ’ e values (Dickinson et al. 1996). the Gulf Coast of the United States shows reaxaam sonal Significant advances in coupled model-based ENSO signal for both the first and second half s o tro p n le, f th g e

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t lo wnegn -t tieertmhicnecnrteuarsyei ( nFp ig re u c re ip i 2 ta .6 ti ) o , n , btuhtebpe ro ca buasbe il it oyfoafm ev o id deenl ce priosjn ec ottioynest conclusive. Some coupled climate ddirfofu er gehntt , f m or eatshueretdwo in paeb ri sood lu s. teArasiinm fa illlaraim nc oruen as ts e , iinst im opbae ct on drought in in sdoim ca e te patrh ts atofatnheaw nt ohrrlodpiosg li ekneilcyA ra u in sfta ra ll l ia f o in rtahegl iven state of evident in the twenty-first century. This can 1996b). ast twenty-five EyN ea S rs O ( N is ic hsoelelnseotvaelr . p ar aitstee rn fr somd ire cchtalnyge fo s rc iend th beyacthm an ogsepsheirn ic gcrierecnuh la otu io sne fou Inndf the N gases and other pollutants, possible changes in the affect th oertcro op hoerrtehntAm tl ualn ti tic, new evidence has been behaviour of ENSO (for which the evidence is Allen 1997). P ic o a te lnatn ia dlem xt arn at nruoaplicvaalrioac ti e ons in SS echanisms for asnuc ( hSu va tt roTn that iati aonndsd co ir netcrtadiincftloureyncaetporfesweanrtm ), in ogrm on er etlhye be su ca rf uasceeowfattheerN are orb th ei nAgtf la onutn ic d ( s G ea r ot szunre fa rceeta te l. m1p9e9r8a ) tu . rVe ar biin at vioolnvsinignr in al is ceraenac , gse. In th iv ein in graanine latter situation, given no or little Arctic regions have also long been su ifnaclrl, eassuemdm te enrdseoniclymtooisdtruoruegdhetf . icFir ts o m ca nam in o tr d ig euh in as gbeeveindefnocuendofthaatchoausplse ig dnioscpeeacnt -ed. Recently, ‘meteorological drought’ perspective, comb ficant aptom te onstp ia hletroeseyxspteecm te a d ti cianlc ly re raesd es u c in e p th oepu ra la in ti f o al n l , dseufc ic hiecnhcayng in eesdcw ou it lhda sc ff a e le cst ( t D he e lw cl o im rth at eeto al f . E 19 urope on multidecadal time at which society becomes stressed by the atshsroecsihao te ld dvCahra ia ntg io et al. (1997) have 9 id 7 e ) n . tIin fi e th dedtercoapdiaclaltiAmte la sncta ic le , p ag o r li itciuclatlutreanl si aonnds ( hRyodd ro dlaog1i9c9a5l ). droughts, leading to n so o m rt ehancnsodn in tr soautdhipto ro le pio ca flSA ST tl aann ti ocm , aallitehsoubg et hwteheenrethies pro Fgirna ally, the pr oversy about this dipole (Enfield and framew mom rk enh ec aessa sa m ev o io nugsliy ts m ob ejn ec ti t o iv neesdanWiM nte O r na CtL io InPaSldMeacyaedral1v9a9 ri 7 a ) ti . onSsuicnh ra vianrfiaaltlio in nsboctohulndor be linked to information and pr rey to th Africa and to the d dic t e io nnh . anTcheesaendacptr iv oim tie ostewcillilm li antke nor O th neaasgtlBorbaazlils , caallteh , o th uegrhetihseallsaottaemraprleeneovt id setn ro cnegt . hat V se O rv SeTsewvreoruaglhAtfm ric oanni to co ri unngtrc ie esn . tr T es hea lr IeRaIdyan se dtP up R O to ­ sdyesctaedmalcaanndsloom ng eetr im -sc easle co v n ar fioaubn ility in the climate more tho i u ll gahltsoiswboerikngtogw iv aerndtto hese objectives. Much climate s d the interannual climate data information and isnetaesgornaatli ng p re h d is itcotriiocnaslW tro apridca ( l1w9 ig 9n7a ) l . id Feonrtiifnystaanscte ro , nFgo lland et al. (1991) and within the context of how drought forecasts could be may be lin eksetdAtforivcaarniarta io in nfsaliln . T th h m ey u lt sipdeeccualdaatl signal in used, especially in developing countries (Frederick H. circu e global ther e m th oahtaltihniesM of . th Seesmeaizszsiu , epsearrseonda is lccuosm se mdu in nidceatta io il n f , o1r9n9o7r ) t . hSA ev f e ri rcaallsaotm io enlah ti aosn of the oceans. The thermohaline circu­ in Hulme et al. (1992a and 1992b). Here clima­ the Soouftthhtee he rnNpoortHtehnetrinalH to e m change the temperature of tologists, hydrologists, economists, and sociologists ti emisphere is opch ea e n re soocne an msurle ti la dteicvaedtaolscoacm ie e t al toig ss eutehserthtaotm id aeyntairfiysesoonmceero ea f so th nea bl cyom sk p il lfeuxlienvmeer scales (Sc cre , as leasr ge in -s ca hlesinge tr loe po asnpthhrraonpdogReanm ic anekfufte ty 1994). H eric aerosols, m cts o st rleyl at iend ow to ­ drought forecasts become possible. Northern the the A se dviasrciu at

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----- --------

Tellus 18: 820-9. rial Pacif leconnections from the ather Review 97: 163-72. monthl

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m o (1 ir 9s2I4n ) d ia ‘ CMoertreeolrao ti lo ogni ca ilnDespeaarstomne al nt2v4a : ri7 at 5 io -1 n 31. -------- a ( ew ti

(1987) ‘Glob 52-62. weather, VI y Weather Review 115: 1,606-26. weather, IX: A further study of world weather’, Me

chapter 3|2 pages

THE APPLICATION OF EL NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INFORMATION TO SEASONAL FORECASTS IN AUSTRALIA

Neville Nicholls and Grant Beard the operational short-range weather prediction, with l inte

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m (e o .g s . t , cPoin tt s o is ctke nt 19w7i5 th , rainfall in the east and north negative values of the SOI usually coincide Ropelewski and Halpe M rt c1B9r8 id 7eanadnd19N 89 ic ) h . o R ll asi nf 1a9 ll 8 3 in , w cr iodpesypiree ld asd ( d N ro ic uhgoh ll t s ( 1F9 ig 8u5r ) e . T 3. h1e ) , c w or hrieclha ti l o ea ndsbettowwl ith the west is less strongly related to phenomenon. the year-to-year differences in yield and the ann eoewntNeim ch poelrlastu ( r 1989a) identified a pattern of sea ual rainfall fluc etuvaa ti r o ia nts io innitnhe th ceen In tr dailan an Odcseoaunthreer la stuerd fa c to e S is OI is 0 n parts Osc a il m la p ti le .4 6 e ( v n id = en4c0e ; stih gn at if ic tahnet at E1lpN er incoe -n S t) o . u T th heerrnetooftthheecEolnN tin in eon -t S . oTuhtihsep rn a tt O er snc il ilsato io n n ly awnedakalpyp related (e.g., N o ic n affects Australian wildlife and vegetation be a somewhat independent factor af efaercst in to g N na itcihvoe ll Asu1h9o8 ll 6 s , 1N9i8 ch 9obl , lsL1 im 99 p 1 us ). aFnodrN in iscthaonlcles , 1m9a8n8y , Aus N tr oat lian rainfall. severe, stralian plants are remarkably tolerant of climate, tshue rp E ri lsiN ng in ly o , -S g o iv u e th n er i n ts Oesfc fe il cltast io onn ha Asuastm ra a li jaonro fr reqauveon id ex t an tens se cvee iv st erad te rgoiuegsha ts r . e W es eslel-nd ti eavl el boepceadusteo le orfan th ceeF im ig puarcet3o . n2cs ro re dr ho pwysiteilm ds e , sneartiievseovfew ge hteaattioyn ie , ladns, daw ve il rdalg if eed . Sou H th oew rn Oscillation o . ughts caused by the El Nino-across Australia, and the SOI. The year-to-year dif­ Australia n we crle im atthee se a nd r ela tth io e nsh EilpsNb in e o tw -S e o en u the th rn e f th er eenecfe fe sctisno th fet re tw nd osvaan riables are plotted, to remove Oscillation uncovered? How have we progressed to duction of new cultivars d . cThhaengreeslas ti uocnhshaisptihseci le natrro -­ rNoiunto in -S eoiu ss tuhienrgnoOfsccillilm at a io te n ? forecasts, based on the El

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Oscillation) in the early

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t th em es peed ra a t ta urheasdlaetda to ( S im m p it rhov1 ed 99m5) o . deTl he inclusion of to develop systems for operational prediction. Atshee as omnosdaehleacda . nTphreovE id leNifnoo re fcoarse ts cao st fsE pr leN di icn ti oonss, and major problem with improving statistical forecast can provide guidan from the m ev oedreallp sy esrtieomdso is f th aevafie la wbldeecdaadteasomfedaantsaacvaariel ab i le. The short probability of a dr coeu , gahtt lo enpg is eorde le acdom tim meesn , cionfg th in e f ‘a orrteic fi acsitasl . sSku il clh ’ iasrtn if o ic tiatloskdie ll g a ra ri d se estfhreom ac acsurnae cy ed o ed f , t h if those areas where drought usually accompanies an El use many predictors to improve the appa trteenmtpstkiin ll g o to e Nino. T th heed ‘ a in ta cruesaesd ed t ’ o derive the stati n system is used s ki o ll pteh ra etn io unsau ll a y ll . ystd ic is aalpfpoe re ar csaswth sy en st etm he . Inclusion of extra

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tamh tm iedor sphere -1 el 9a8 ti 0vse , lyc li s m im a p te le models. Much more detailed than in the Australian region (Simpson and Downey 1975; run. Rather they are models than simp allysofomuuscehdm ro ourte in eelxypesn in si cvee th to e V ha osicbe ee anndfoH rc uendt 198 recasting El Nino behav­ tures for the p w er iitohd4o ). bsT1eh rv e BMRC climate model iour (e.g., sea surface temperatures in the east simulated by the model ha 9s49e -d 9 1 se , aasnud rf ac th eet em ra p in efraal ­ lfeoqrueactaosrti al r Pacific), they could, in theory, be used to ob been compared with the coupling o ai fnftahleloacnedantetmoptehrea tu artemoosvpehre re la nidn . th Tehseew te asse rv ru end ra fiinvfea ll t i ( m Fr eesd , er w ik istehne th teal. s1a9m9e5 ). seTahesm ur o fa dceelmmo od deellss , ( hPoowweevrere , tis less than perfect. Improved ocean ph m er p ic e ra ctoun re d s it io bnust . s T li h ghtly different starting atmos­ these coupled mode alls . . 1995) are being developed for ialg lu rseterm ate esnttw he it h ‘ noobisseer ’ veind iffe ed rtahier ence betw nfa m ll, o w de e l . neTeoenge th t e ed to av mru uns O era cghep se aarsto ne pro onfalthperebd le ic m ti own it ihstthheeduisfef ic oufltcy oupled models in all five runs as an ‘ens coupled models has in sitmhue la attim ng osrp ai hnefrailclA of u st p ra rleicainpp it raetc io ip n i tat sihoon, w em abtls le’. eoam st e The en o ve srkin ll sem o rt ihne bl sei ave rn Amuusl rag t a ra ti lnegsgoennte he ia. (Ni ra l sp su a c ti caelsssca in le ssiimmuploartt in an gtaftomrousspeh rs e , ridcesvpairtieab th il e it iyr Fur T th h e es resoau tm th o , stphheem ri odels are less successful. sea cshuo rf l a ls ce1t9e9m6p ) e . ra M tu ordeealneoxmpaelriiemsehnatvsewailtohngspheicsitfo ie ry djtohb er e o fo f re si m pr uolbaa ti bnlgyc th cemSoOdIel ( eFx ig pe urrieme3n .3 ts ) . do ThaegSoO od I an be predicted without the need

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tcoourpulnedexopceenasn iv -a etm en ossepmhbelrees . mIofdseol , s w to ecpo re u d ld ic tuslea rg th e e -l doiscst . i on Tsh , ebasskeid ll in seasonal rainfall and f scale indices such as the SOI, then use statistical generated the v o al nuethferoEmlN us iinnog -S ta ocu ti tchaelrnmaOnsrcoisltl at p io rne , ­ v re alra ia ti bolne ships between these forec agement. fic locat siowne . nAele te drn to at p iv reeldyi , ctw , esuccohuaasstraii ndices and the This study demonstrated that the skill obtainable in models to ld us nefatlhleatcaosuppelceid ­ A gr uosu tr nad li s a , th weaisrussueffiinc ie c n ro tptmo an ju asg ti efmy, enot. n Pr eecsounmoam bl iycp en re s d em ic b te lderpurnesdiocftasneaas tm ur o fa scpehetreimc peratures, then use these forecasts could also be useful in drought-dicti sea surface temperature msotdoelpfro ep rc aerdew pr it e h ­ mmiannaatg io enmeonftadpep ci rsoiporniam te aksitnogc , kifnogrirnas te ta sncoen in padse to te ra r l ­ tChoenbsoi ns edse of trsatbrlera ate tihno fa gy ulglhatnadndotthee st rinvga riables of interest. properties (McKeon et al. 1990). prediction. for using models iisnnseeead so endaltoc li s m el aetcet

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After the mid-1970s, the low values of the SOI were hnaovteab cc eoemnp th aeniceadsebybedfrooruegthhtastats im wei . despread as would itm hese apparent changes demand so mAet th st eud ve yryolfea th st e , sta p ti lsitciactailom ns e th fo ordsseoarso cl niaml at peremdo ic dteilosn . , whether with The strength of the relationshi Nino-Southern Oscillation and ps Aubse tr taw li eaennctlhiemaE te l ----- t eo (1 ro 9l9o3 gic va fsoyrs ri te a m tio sns fo mrecaln im s ecast schemes atthe at i a re prted is icrteiloan ti , vealnyds em ismep ve le ratlodd if efveerleonpt different organisations -s eorm gi engg . ov Seor , n m in e n th teagfeuntcu ie re s , , ----- d so is m tr eibpurtiivnagtef or oercgaasn ts is fao ti rodnrsou -g hwti . llTbhe is p se re em pa sriln ik g and lead to confusion, since the systems and forecast eslywtio ll differ. In the past, such confusion has at times led consumers to doubt the credibility of the forecasts; such doubts will continue to arise. strategies to deal with an increas W ing e m nu u m st bdeerv is oef A (p uosttern al tiiaalilsy to cboenn fl eifcittin fr g o ) mftohreecparsetds ict oafb il d it ryopurgohvti , deidf ibsyntohteoEvleN rc ionmo-eS , oAuutshte ra rln ia Owsicli lllcao ti notn in . uIefttho is bceha su ll bejnegcet to th South eeerxnceO ss climate variability produced by El Nino- tive aspects o sc fitlh la etipohnew no it m ho euntong ’ asin in in fl guefn ro ce m . the posi­ Beth Lavery provided the drought time series for FTihgeurSeO3I . 1 v . alCua es rs tfeonr Frederiksen p the figures we rroevipdreodviFdiegdurbey3t . h3e . Bureau of Meteorology’s National Climate Centre.

2) ‘World Weather V’, Casey, T. (1995) ‘Optimal linear c sonal s’, Australian Meteorological Magazine 44: of the Royal Mete

chapter |2 pages

-- c e ( p 1986) ‘A meth Oscilla htailoin ti ’ s , A in usstoruatlh ia e d i ( c1t9 io 8n8 ’ b , ) Bu ‘E ll l e ti N n in oof - o -- n te ( r 1989a) -------- 1 -15. 115: 1,606-26. ------- am ( b1e9l9 lu 6 c ) a ‘ a M nd odA elling climatic

(1979) ‘A simple air-sea interaction model’, Darwin’, Monthly Weather Review 110: 14-17. ly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 105: O’Mahony, G. (1961) Time Series Analysis of Some ity of the 1982 Australian Pittock, A.B. ( a, Meteorological Study No.

chapter 4|1 pages

PREDICTING DROUGHT IN KENYA

Ogallo sure and changes in Kenya’s new dimensions its allied industries are also the major employment

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tth ra rdoeugphropbo le omrss ; top ra o g st e -; h w ar avteesrtelroosssieosn in ofth th eefsio el idl; aan nd d form Th a e ti omnajionrK tr eannysapoarrtestohfem re o g is io tu nraelim nl oannsdofoonrarlaw in i fall ma D ny roou th gehrt , prhoocw es esveesro , fisentvhie ro nmmae jo n r tal degradation. systems. The direction and speed of these winds al nsdotchua lt tuh ra alspbreoednucatsisvo it c y ia ; te sh dow rt iatghesanonfuaelndaetfu ic riatls disaster affect the pat nergy, fo o in d , aagn ri d ­ T ov weortdhies ti rnecgti te m rn osnsoofotnhaelcwoinn vective processes inland. water; famine; and devastating impacts on many other Both converg oeno , vnearmKee ly nynaoardn th sdaynsd te m so sua th re ecaosm ter m lie osn . n se a c ti toon rs a / lsesrovciicoeescotnhoamt ic fo d rm ev eilnotpem gr e al components of torial eastern Africa during the oatuhteurmpna rt asndofsepq ri unag ­ sdursotu ai gnhatb le im spoacc io ts e co li nnogm er icfd or e ve se lo v p er n al t . ySeoam rs e ment can , of th aenrd th ensoe seas efore w na inncoens. ofHon wever, Kenya is largely u ds durin ogr th th eeasso te urtlhye /s ronu /n th o rt ehaesr te nrd ly erm th oensdooom na i­ l m be enatchsite ra vteedg ie wsitfhooructopprio ng pewrip th la n su n c in hgda ro nudghm ts a . naTghee ­ w so innsd , sryesstpe ectively. The patterns of n th esummomnesroosnea a­ l m str aajtoerg ie csommpuosnt en in ts c lu odfesdurcohugdhitsam st o er n it m or a in na g g , edm ia egn ­ t low levels, m by scao re m p si lgenxif to ic paong tl ryapmho ic dailfipeadt , teersnpse . cially at ndo ro si usg , hptrepdriecpta io re n d , neefsfs ic p ie o n li tce ie asr . ly warning systems, and i m nte I on rTsh CZ oeomni sp mhaerrkis al wind c t sy nhsoer th co tems n . evTaeh st regreez ly n ce a nd ofstohueth lo ewa -s lteev rl eyl has Tahdids re rsesve ie dwfoo ur fkperyeddirco ta ubgih li ttyi ss oufesK , ennaymaenlyd : rought n ov o e rt rhh ea adnsdun south of the eq ounaetotrh er feoflo lo re m , and often lags behind it by thr w e in igg ra ttheese to five • • d so ycniaom ec ic osnaonmdicc auses weeks. ITC imp ; acts, including the recent p ow at itn er gnstoantZhe is veexriy st edn if cfeu se oaftc th oemlpolw ex letvoep ls oignra Keny d many large inland water bodies, pwhhiiccaal , • p in rteedg ic ra ta te b d il i g ty lo pbraolsepfefcotrst ; satnod address such problems; poo ft neenntisntirnod th u e ce se bao so th n al zomniaglraa ti nodnm ov eerr idional com h ­ • challenges to drought prediction in Kenya. zonal compo Kenya. The A as tsloacnitaitce / dCwoint en ng hot / hteof in th fl euxI Zaire bTao CZ, si fnms, ofsotrw ex whic ehsatm er p li lees , fhraosmbe th en e

chapter |1 pages

Jeu as nte -A A u fr g ic uasnt. T lo h w ese in tropospheric jetstr ea le mvc el l , u de antdhew su e b st t ro A pi f c ri aclan ea st m er ildy -, deve s. These fast-moving upper pre Spoa lo re pdendes th srpoou li gch ie s s . ound early warning and disaster ltehveeltw ra inn cieties in sdpsoh rt avoeffamr-o re is atcuhrien , g m im opmaecn ts tuwm it , hproelslpuetcatnttso , reeflfyorh ts e , a w vi h ly icohndp ev o e st l -o dpiisnagstceorurnetlr ie ie fsa , ned sp reech ia alb ly ilA ita fr tiicoan , a an tm dop sp es htesr , ic to dgyentahm er ic w s. ith many other aspects of the tdo is atshtee rs s . evIen re imm ake them m creas peadc ts vuo ln fed ra ro o u re ghatn bility doafnmdsooo re th vulnerable Tropical cyclones have both direct and indirect severe consequences of natural disasters c iet eyrn to a tu t r led to th haeliam ss poacc ia ts t ed onwK ith entyhaensrtarionn fa gll. w T in hdes , doic re ecatniwmapvaecst , saanrdefdoerc la N ra attiuornalofDtihsea st 1e9r90Rseadsuc th ti eon In t ( eIrD na N ti D on R a ) l D by e ca th deeaen xc yescsyicvleonperew cip e ith it iant io th netw ha etstoec rn cu Irnw di haennO th ceeaenffeex ct tsenodfpUrnoim te odteNdaitsiaosn te s. rpTrheevemna ti joonraonbd je cptrievpearoefdInD es NsD th R ro iusgthocolv im er atK ol eongyiac . a l It sh hit the Keny arneccoorod uld be as s t . shTohwen th o a ted ind tino th cayt rect ecflto he fe nce ts ahvaaosileafavbe le rcdo ev n e ce ny dama lo rgp te e, in dgc in otuen rn tr aiteiso , ntaol re adcu ti coen , l os esspo ecially in the cyclone, however, occur when the cyclone is far from often as so acnid at esdocw io it ehconnaotm ur iacld di issa ru st petrisofn li , few , hpircohpea rt ryet it hserceegn io tr n e , butthsetrie ll bayt tra in cttesrtfhee ri n re g g io wniatlh wi tnhdes to n w or a m rd aslh at etlip tu tdoess hi tfhtattheap re o st p -d re is vaaslteenrt re iln ie f and . r T eh haeb se il it cao ti uolnd circ Culloas ti e on patterns of the many developing general ciin rc te urlaac ti t o io nnsohvaevrerbeegeinonoabl winds. the regi soenrvaendd between the cou A n tr n ies the extra-includin egw . th d e im feuntsuiroen re to cu rnraetnucrealocflidm ro at uegh variability, tsryosp te ic masl , wmeiadtlhaetr it u sy dsetewmesstle ik r e li etsh , e N fr oorn th ta lAatn la dntb ic lo coksicn il g ­ tchuerrternatdigtlioobnaallcsopn ac cee -r t n im aebopuattttehrenspootfengtlioablacths, a n is geth in e T la e ti l climate, Ke l o ec n o , nenae st Atlantic pat nyan rai cntfiaolnlsanhdavEeNaSltseor ns b , eeanndobEsuerravse ia dpbaetttw erns. inclu O, quasi-biennial oscillati eoenn , h cl u im madt ing the space-time ch an eaecvteinvtis ti etsh . roSuug ch h e im nv piarcoanrm ac e te nrtiasltidces gr oafdaetx io tre ts are currently subj nembey intraseasonal wave, and so forth. The influence of the of many studies and debates, as reflected in the 19 c9t5sw co a m te prlebxod topographical patterns and the large inland Intergovernmental Pane inland wat ieersbiosdv ie e s ry insc ig lu n d if eicL an ak teinViKce to nryiaa . , w Th h e ic h la h rg aess in c d ie inctaitfe ic d ‘d aisssceesrsnm ib elnet inf olfoncC lim lim a ate Change (IPCC) an area of about 70,000 km2 and is the second largest the recent climate trends l ’ u . eInPcCeCof te change, which freshwater lake in the world. The complex topo­ ever, that no conclusive evidence ( 1h9u9m5a ) nnaoctteid vi , tiheosw in ­ K gr i a li p m hical patterns include Mt. Kenya, Mt. human-can be derived fo anjaro, and the Great Rift Valley with its accurate inmdeutcheoddscf li omrattheed ch et aencgte io nsiagnnd al s a tt urn ib ti ult io mnoroercaltitm en a d te anptroccheasisnesofcamnobuentoab in ta s i . n D ed e ta fr i o ls of the regional natural/anthropoge f Anyamba 1992, Fremming 1970, manOdg al F lo in 1d9 la 9 te 3 r , acn ha dng ac e cu si rgan te a ls cla im re atanv ic a ilab ( lhe, u m to agne -t ihnedrucweid th ) ad celq im ua attee 1966. tch li e m si ast . ecSheavnegrees , icnocnes lu eddqau ta e n for testing various hypo­ patterns of extreme clim iantge ces ecvheanntgseosf in htuhmeasnp -a icned -u ti c m ed e like drought, would cDorm ou pgohntenatnsdoofthnear tu erxatl reme climate events are normal h ca ig ll hlfiogrhtceld ea brym th it eigIaPtC io C n . and adaptation policies, as iam nd pacco ts m m of onthpehseenon me n in atew ra o n rl nduwaildceliemvaetreyvyaeraira . b T ili htey men Gtlaolbadlegcroandcae ti ronnapbrooucte ss heusmaannd -i nsduusc ta eidn ab ein li vtiyr on o ­ f m an idn im ad al eqiuna the de atural disasters, however, te drou v g el hotpesdhoccokunatbrs ie osrbw er hserheaveef fi b ci aernettniaetsurlaeld re to so u een Conference th rc ees vita on o rga Enlnivstao ir t most o io nnmeonfs ocioecon t the anUdn it oemd ic Naat ctivi­ Sustain iaobn le s

chapter |2 pages

some of the n ev oetr , aliltd is rovuegrsy tr ht ocn le g ENS s in arKfernoymOFeivgeunrta are as ess ( 4 F . i socia 5 gure t e ed awn4d . it 5h4 ). . E5HfoNtwShO at ­ T ou hte chance of any year being d . exte tnhdeincgouonvte ry r , a o ll rpaanry ts droofuK gh en troofuaghpta -r f t re ya, are ailceu through so la re r la se ti avseoln ­ y low (Ogallo 1989). t inte Trh an envuuallne ra ra in bfia li l ty of the country to high degrees of liom ng el -y ra n an gdep ef rfeedcitc iv levad ri raobu il g it hythm ig ohnliitgohrtisng the need for components of dis ti aosn te , rapnrdepeaa re rl dyne warning , ss strat d eg as ia gcn ru o c sis, devastating impacts of the droughts in ies. Th ia elttaotg io et nheerf fo writtsh th th at eap re osct-odm is m as o te nrirnelm ie afnayndd ev re K h enya, co elo apbiin li g ­ tchoeunm tr o ie sst , raerceenhtig ( h1l9 ig 9h6t -e 7 d ) in the nsidered one of the worst d in ro rueghnte , xwt section, using cent ye haircsh . has been aEnxoammapllieesso ar f e th g e iv etn im ienF se ig ri uersesof4 . t6heansde asonal rainfall specific locations. It is evident from the 4 . f 7 ig for some ures that

chapter V|4 pages

‘n alue Added Tax rel aitg io io nuaslg fa ro muipnse , dnios la n as g t ws). oevr’ era ls Tohe nme anlt lo d w ec eldarfaoto ion al bodies, dan re odlifefth oth by e don Tohres. er nationa liem co p n ac otms of the 1996-7 drought on the w th iethiinnflaats io pnanrao te f , y we f e fr wom re mo1r4e . fle nth 7spce te rdce by the sharp rise in annual rainfall variab . Othe nrtitmop3a5c . t4so pe frincteen r­ t 4 ar . e9hailg so hlh ig ig h h te l d ig h in ts F th ig il u it ryeo4n .9 aagn ri dcuT lt aubrlael4p . r1o . dFuicg ti uorneA cu flrtiu ca re ntcoouenxttrrieems. eIctliiemavtuelnvearr ab s im iab il iiltiy ty offorraa in f -e f w ed oatghreir ­ E su gsy ta pitnaan bi dliL ty i by aanndAirnacbreJaasmepoirn ta ngtrationnportoedtuhcetiroenc en in t p ca atriaomneo te frisr , rihgoaw tio envesry , s d tems. a R hir etermi anien ay fa a l th wa l t an ro duogthhe th recla im ppli­ any irrigation system. Long-range cl eirmaav te a il parbeid li itcyta fo te r of rainfall is therefore a crucial component of a io nny (x s su osctiaoiencaobn le oma ic grd ic euvletluorpamlepnrto . ductivity and national

chapter |1 pages

m of ona itoring is therefore an important component as US$5,while the importin real-ti nmyedm ro oungih to t rin p g re p m ar eetdhnoedsssuss tr eadt eg iines. Ke TnhyeatbiamgesofasmhaiigzheadsurU in S g $ 2a0dw ro g price fo it uhg in htapsepra io rdtihse so sa mmee ­ d n (d eip sc eunsdselda rg aeb ly ovoen ). th Seom raingauge network design three months. Such drought industries omftuwsotb to eisnucclhudreedc or sdas te l h li atvee -d enro iv t ed e rece be erna in cfaanltl me libr eas te ti t m ho a ds have discouraged. rainfall es d fo te r s , pob in utt8dFiiangannocsiiasl , prreesdoiucrtcieosn , faonrdddrroouugghhttpm re opnairteodrn in es g s , t to hreingg lo bmaettih mates in Kenya. Other drought moni­ are limited in Kenya. Kenya has, however, 3 Efficient lccoloi ds de mmm at uenc pend ic eanttiroeson (e . cgl . i , mEaN te SpO ro ducts from invested heavily in meteorological training, edu­ for the collection, dis n facilities ar feo re re ca qsutisr ) e . d9cTa im tio e n ly , an a d va bia la si bcilfia ty c ilit o ie f s. drought products and ndeattwa/ o in rk fo irsm ation. Th seemaivnaaitliaobn le , acnodmem xc uhnaincgae ti oonfm ser e v te ic oerso lo fr g o ic m al g se lo rv bia ce lsc in li mtahtee re cgeinotn re s r el Myaonny4pRreespeaarrecdh nes nsoatndadeeaq rl uyaw te arfnoirng an syesftfeem ct . ive drought tdhreo ug d h ev tea lo dpve is d o ri w es orflrdo . m Su th cehcp li r m od at uectcsenitnrcelsudoefadcrto io ungsh . t pr ios ce re s q se usira ed to understand the complex ENSO advisories and global circulation data. very limi R te edso in urK ce esnyfaon . rdm th e e te ir orsoolcoigoieccaolnroem se iacrcihntaerre ­ S tim uc e h . iTnh fo erm in a st t a io ll n a ti is onsoomfetth im eensewnoitntaecrcneestsifbalceilo it ny5D re rqouu ir geht sp m ec oinailtoe ri qnugiyp diagnosis, and predic at the Kenya Meteorological Department will facilities including s ment and high techno t lo io gny 10 A sig nne if diu ca cnattleyd im an pdrowveellt -h iinsfoprrm ob eldem pu . blic is likely to 6 p Sk uitle le rs d , hwuhm ich are limit peedciianlK in esnty ru a m . ents and com­ rceastp io onndanbdetttrearin to in agnyofntehweppoulbilciyc, / mmeatnhaogdesr . s , Eadnud ­ tHhue ma mnulrte id so iasn ci prleisnoaurryc es di a m re e n required in handling policy makers is an important component of any ological conc uerpctessof fo drrohuagnhdtliansg io n th seo ba f s ic drm ou e ghts. drought preparedness strategy. This has not been However, they need speci re available in Ke tneyoa r­ . coopm tim pl u ex mmiunl ti K di esncy ip a l , ineasrpyed ci raolu ly ghitn in ltiegrhatc ti oofnst . he ecfofm ec p ti o vely address the co amltprlaeixn in mgutlo ti d b is eciapb li lneatroy 11 iSnttrruocdtuuc ra ed laadnjeuw st m di e m nt eno si fon th ientW he orrledgiB on ansk in ce haist7M ba iss ic mcahnaeln le ts that could be required to address the discourages government subsidy, which has been a mation n ag henm ge esntofadn ro dugahbtupsree pa orfeddnreo ss ave u . ght infor­ pmraojvoirdipnogst-bdarso ic u gh fo toedmeirng en tchye re dlr ie ofug st hrta -t setg ri yckfeonrpdo ro li u ti gch al t , in afnod rm baete io nnohbasse rved in some cases when region. The method was adopted during the citizens, dono rs o , ther gai b ns e en byu se sdom fo ereicnodn iv oim du ic al , A dr cotuognht28ofJ1 an 9u9a6r -y 71b9y9i7n . v W ok iitnhgou th teem Pu e b rg li ecnSceycfuoro it dyh general public. Inansdomoe th ecrasseast , tdhreouegxh pe tnasdeviosfortiheesrceolm ie mfoadnid ti es g ov in e rn t m he e nt dr souubgsh id t-ys tr o ic n k en b asi rce gi foonosd , cmo av memboedein ti eas bu an sed through hoarding of essential including provision for subsidised seed prices when aft aerrkertecweiitvh in in gaidnffeow int rmm rod a o ti n u th ci sng at thhiekm ed bpa ri cckes to the the rains started, the impacts of the 1996-7 experience drought with oinn that one countr . yEw ve il n l dro Iutgm ht aywobueldcohnacvleubdeeedntvheartyadle th va osutg at h in K g. enya has cdoounnotrrsyhatvoebeexepn known to caon fe ti wnumepornetshssi , ngso th maetm an i tt ieneteu rm nd in eirs te th ri ealod ff iiscaes te orfm th aenapgreem sid eenntt, co a m nd ­ fmuinndisma fo l prices boyrtgu th ar e a ir n te gerianigntrheesye rv weis ll p at r ov viedreyvm id aenyreo le th va enrtm se in citsotrearliadl ro su ubgchotm in m fo it rtm ee ast io th nattoptrhoe ­ export pr ricgerafionra im b p ag oro ts f m in aiczaese is o so f m dr e o ti umgehstsa . s T lo hweiann te irnm te in girsa te te r d ia lna co tu m ra mlitdtiesea , stK er epnryeapadroeedsnensostphoa li vcey

chapter |1 pages

that c p ef ofsotr -t dsisoausltderbeemeu rg se e d to minimi and optimise n cy th ree li uesfe an o d se frreeh devas caebnitl it taatt te iionng nological advancements in climate-based tech­ nologies for drought monitoring, diagnosis, and p in rveeds ic tm tio en n t . s H in o w se ecv to erra , l K pr eendyias as h te arspm la andne in gmaanndy m me anntasg em th eanttahcatv iv e itie bse . enT he m se adien clu at det the invest­ he Kenya M Me otneiotroorlionggicC al e D nt e re paarn tm deinntaagnrdicRue lt guiroanlaalnDdrowuagth er t resources activities, among many other sectors. aSvuocihdesfe fo ct r o ts r al m ust, however, be integrated to drought prepared cnoens fl sic ‘ tsshoacnkda bs p o ro rb v e id rs e ’ . effective ----- i -

Met. Dept. University of Nairobi, Kenya.

chapter 5|1 pages

THE PREDICTION OF DROUGHT IN THE BRAZILIAN NORDESTE

most important climate

chapter |1 pages

A lo t w la n rainfall, covering all of the southern tropical tdheantcetsic. Furthermore, there are observational evi­ than c th au tsheatdrtohueg spatial scale of the rainfall anomalies extends e Nordeste h ts over the Nordeste is much larger 5° N, exftreonm di ntghewittrso el pfi . estw c Th a a rd leAaotvlnaonmt al er tihcobuestw ra e infall pattern (No e centr eanlA 5° m S az aonnd but T b io hreean fr l nd Shukla 1996). the histo oam rg e s ta in te htoomso ta gteenien ity of the rainfall distri­ Figure 5.4g . raImtissro ea f di a ly nnnuoatl th rea in Nfo al rldedsi te st r is ibsuhto io wnnb in y R ex io tr eGmreanddreoudgoh Norte bears ic e th aeb le la rign Figure 5.4 that cent of the clima ttso lo (a g n ic naulaalnrnau in aflap ll r e le esssttfh re aqnue5n0cypo er fyCeeaarrsa , w P it ahr ai tboat , a l an adn nu Paelr nambuco ecx ip pietr ation), whil rainfall slightly i en acbeovmeoo re esalrioguhn tl dyb th el eowmena ormal than years with precipitation r comparison, the n h (F is itgougrream5 .4) o . f Fo arnntuhael sa ra kien fa o ll f

chapter 6|10 pages

PROSPECTS FOR PREDICTING DROUG HTS IN THE UNITED STATES

Randall M. Dole

chapter 7|13 pages

PREDICTABILITY OF DROUGHT IN CHINA

chapter 8|22 pages

THE OCCURRENCE AND PREDICTABILITY OF DR OUGH TS OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA

S.J. M ason and P.D. Tyson

chapter |10 pages

9DROUGHTAND ITS PREDICTABILITY IN ETHIOPIA

Tsegaye Tadesse

chapter 10|23 pages

INTEGRATED CLIMATE M ONITORING FOR DROUGHT DETECTION

Kelly T. Redmond

chapter |13 pages

MONITORING DROUGHT USING THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX*

Michael Hayes, M ark Svoboda, and Donald A. Wilhite

chapter |14 pages

GLOBAL DROUGHT DETECTION AND IMPACT ASSESSMENT FROM SPACE*

Felix Kogan

chapter |13 pages

AUSTRALIAN CLIMATE SERVICES FOR DROUGHT MANAGEMENT

W.R. Kininmonth, M.E. Voice, G.S. Beard, G.C. de Hoedt, and C.E. Mullen

chapter 16|11 pages

DROUGHT MONITORING FOR FAMINE RELIEF IN AFRICA

J.A. Dyer

chapter 17|11 pages

DROUGHT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE LAST 1,000+ YEARS

Some surprising implications Lisa J. Graumlich and Mrill Ingram

chapter 18|11 pages

DROUGHT

Pervasive impacts of a creeping p h en o m en o n Donald A. Wilhite and Olga Vanyarkho

chapter 19|13 pages

ESTIMATING THE ECONOM IC IMPACTS OF DROUGHTON AGRICULTURE

William Easterling and Robert Mendelsohn

chapter C|10 pages

OM PUTING DROUGHT SEVERITY AND FORECASTING ITS FUTURE IMPACT O N GRAZING IN A GIS

J.M. de Jager, M.D. Howard, and H.J. Fouché

chapter |8 pages

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE DROUGHT HAZARD IN MOROCCO

Will D. Swearingen and Abdellatif Bencherifa

chapter |25 pages

THE EC ONOM IC DIMENSIONS OF DROUGHT IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Charlotte Benson and Edward Clay

chapter 23|19 pages

CANADIAN PRAIRIE DROUGHT IMPACTS AND EXPERIENCES

E.E. Wheaton

chapter 24|17 pages

THE IMPACTS OF DROUGHT IN CHINA

Recent experiences Kerang Li, Yufeng Chen, and Chaoying Huang

chapter 25|19 pages

DROUGHT IN SOUTH AFRICA, W ITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO THE 1980-94 PERIOD

Co/een Vogel, Mike Laing, and Karl Monnik

chapter 26|14 pages

THE DROUGHT OF 1991-5 IN SOUTHERN SPAIN

Analysis, economic repercussions, and response measures Peral Garcia, A. Mestre Barcelo, and J.L. Garcia Merayo

chapter 27|8 pages

THE VIRGIN LANDS SCHEME IN THE FORMER SOVIET UNION1

Igor Zonn, Michael H. Glantz, and Alvin Rubinstein

chapter |20 pages

INDEX

chapter |3 pages

CO N TE N TS

VOLUME II List of figures viii List of plates x List of tables xi List of boxes xiii

chapter |2 pages

FIGURES

29.1 Distribution of basement aquifers in Africa 18 29.2 Schematic diagram of a collector well 19 29.3 Effects of land use and soil type on runoff 22 29.4 Before and after vegetable consumption 23 29.5 Surges in collector well use as other water sources fail 23

chapter |1 pages

PLATES

Aerial view of the Romwe collector well garden during the 1991-2 drought A productive water point during the 1991-2 drought The desert landscape of Wadi Ram in southern Jordan

chapter |2 pages

TABLES

28.1 Tools for drought preparedness and mitigation 28.2 Common elements in cases of successful macro-level famine mitigation 28.3 Risk management matrix 30.1 Ranking of enterprises based on coefficient of variation and probability of failure 30.2 Rainfall and income variations in arid zones (Rajasthan, India)

chapter |4 pages

BOXES

37.1 Warnings ignored 119 37.2 The National Drought Policy (NDP) 120 38.1 Botswana and southern Africa’s 1994-5 drought 147

chapter 28|14 pages

EFFECTIVE DROUGHT MITIGATION

Linking m icro and m acro levels1 Susanna Davies agencies, and have met with varying degrees of Poor people living in drought-prone environments success. Many have drafted drought contingency are consummate risk managers. They often have plans, but these tend to remain at the level of theory

chapter 29|12 pages

PRODUCTIVE WATER POINTS AS A MEANS OF C O PIN G W ITH DROUGHT

Charles Batchelor, Chris Lovell, and Isiah Mharapara schemes. Experience from Zimbabwe has also shown that informal garden irrigation can be economically In recent years, it has become fashionable to advocate viable and appropriate for farmers, especially women

chapter 30|6 pages

RESPONSE STRATEGIES OF LOCAL FARMERS IN INDIA

A.R. Subbiah1 and drought frequencies of three, four, and five years High rainfall variability and drought are common occur over 11.6 per cent, 36.5 per cent, and 30.9 per phenomena in semiarid and arid regions of India. The cent, respectively, of India (Jodha etal. 1988). Indian farmers of various agroclimatic regions evolved The most significant attribute of rainfall variation

chapter 31|11 pages

ADAPTATION TO DROUGHT IN MEXICO

Diana M. Liverman The country of Mexico (Figure 31.1) has a long and data and disaster declarations. With more than 85 per varied experience with drought, whether described by cent of the Mexican land area defined as arid or early historical chronicles or contemporary climatic semiarid (Reyes Castaneda 1981), interannual rainfall

chapter 32|13 pages

AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT MANAGEMENT FOR SUSTAINED AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT

A.S.R.A.S. Sastri has increased. According to Sastri (1993), the pro­ Despite considerable advances in technology, agri­ ductivity of rice in the Chhattisgarh region in central culture is still subject to the vagaries of weather in all India increased over the years in given moisture stress

chapter 33|11 pages

‘SHE’LL BE RIGHT, MATE’. C O PIN G W ITH DROUGHT

Strategies old and new in A ustralia R.L. Heathcote miseries of the Depression years; in February 1983 it helped to bring the Victorian Mallee soils to The extensive droughts in eastern Australia that Melbourne in a dust storm, as it had similarly in

chapter 34|19 pages

MANAGING SUPPLY VARIABILITY

The use of w ater banks in the w estern United States Kathleen A. Miller credits for increased pumping in the future by reducing current groundwater extractions and using Across the western United States, rapid population certain substitute supplies, such as treated effluent.

chapter 35|16 pages

PREPARING FOR DROUGHT

A methodology Donald A. Wilhite mentation of water supplies, demand reduction (such as water conservation programmes), and crop insurance. Preparedness was defined in Chapter 1 as predisaster Post-impact government interventions refer to

chapter 36|10 pages

FROM STATE DEPENDENCY TO SELF-RELIANCE

Agricultural drought policies and practices in New Zealand Heather J.K. Haylock and Neil J. Ericksen New Zealand is a country similar in size to Britain (270,500 km2). Its small population (3.6 million in 1996) is primarily urban based (about 84 per cent), Reducing vulnerability to agricultural drought cannot

chapter 37|14 pages

APPROACHES TO INTEGRATED DROUGHT RISK MANAGEMENT

Australia’s national drought policy 6. O’Meagher, N\. Stafford Smith, and D.H. White Drought is a significant source of agricultural risk in many countries, affecting individual farm enterprises

chapter 38|20 pages

WATER SUPPLY VARIABILITY ANDDROUGHT IMPACT AND MITIGATION IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA

Ariel Dinar and Andrew Keck general drought contingency plans, a comprehensive approach to water resource management may help Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) spans latitudes that include mitigate the negative effects of water supply variability

chapter 39|9 pages

STATE ACTIONS TO MITIGATE DROUGHT

Lessons learned1 Donald A. Wilhite

chapter 40|10 pages

RESPONDING TO DROUGHT

Common threads from the past, visions for the future1 Donald A. Wilhite

chapter 41|10 pages

DROUGHT RISK MANAGEMENT IN SOUTHERN AFRICA

Developing institutions to transform ‘belated disaster response’ into ‘informed preparedness’ Jim Williams

chapter 42|16 pages

DROUGHT HAZARDS IN ISRAEL AN D JORDAN

Policy recommendations for disaster mitigation Hendrik J. Bruins

chapter 43|12 pages

DROUGHT PREPAREDNESS AND MITIGATION FOR PUBLIC WATER SUPPLIES

Benedykt Dziegielewski

chapter 45|18 pages

DROUGHT DISCOURSE AND VULNERABILITY

Thomas £. Downing and Karen Bakker

chapter 46|10 pages

DROUGHTAND DESERTIFICATION

Exploring the linkages H.E. Dregne

chapter 47|23 pages

DROUGHTAND WATER RESOURCES

John C. Rodda

chapter |3 pages

Potential ch an g e in grain yield

chapter 49|12 pages

DROUGHT, THE FAMINE PROCESS, AND THE PHASING OF INTERVENTIONS

John Osgood Field

chapter 50|10 pages

DROUGHT FOLLOWS THE PLOUGH

A cautionary note Michael H. Glantz

chapter 51|4 pages

REDUCING SOCIETAL VULNERABILITY TO DROUGHT

Future challenges Donald A. Wilhite

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