ABSTRACT

For over 50 years, evaluators have used theories of change to articulate the causal logic underpinning how an intervention is intended to bring about a desired change. From its origins in programme evaluation, the approach has been adopted more widely for purposes from program design to program management. As theories of change continue to be used for multiple purposes, it is an opportune moment for the evaluation community—where the approach originated—to provide their perspective on the strengths and limitations of the approach and its future directions. To provide these perspectives, we asked nearly 30 of the world’s leading evaluators and programme theorists to provide a short essay on the past, present, and future of theories of change. This book presents their insights organized into five main themes: the use of theories of change in broader public policy contexts; using theories of change to establish causality; developing theories of change reflective of multiple stakeholder perspectives; using theories of change to understand wider societal change processes; and applying theories of change approaches for multiple purposes. By sharing these diverse perspectives, the book aims to both provide evaluators and emerging programme theorists with critical perspectives to inform future practice.

The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives (CC-BY-NC-ND) 4.0 license.

part 1|12 pages

Introduction

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Introduction

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part 2|46 pages

Considerations in using theories of change to establish causality

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chapter 1|10 pages

Setting the stage for contribution claims

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chapter 3|9 pages

My perspective on theories of change

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chapter 5|10 pages

How deep is your ontology?

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How ontological thinking can improve how evaluators use theories of change
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part 3|44 pages

Using theories of change to understand wider societal change processes

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chapter 8|10 pages

Strategy-level theories of change require a focus on systems change

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An actor-based approach can help
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chapter 9|11 pages

Evaluating the use of artificial intelligence and big data in policy making

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Unpacking black boxes and testing white boxes
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part 4|46 pages

Adapting theories of change for use in broader public policy contexts

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chapter 12|10 pages

Theories of change and the evaluation of sustainable impact

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Moving beyond simplicity in development cooperation
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chapter 13|7 pages

Use of theory of change as a management tool for government multiyear development plans

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The case of Brazil's Federal Development Plan
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chapter 15|12 pages

Simple heuristics for drafting theories of change

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A case of behavioural insights into food waste
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part 5|48 pages

Applying theories of change approaches for multiple purposes

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chapter 16|9 pages

The law of the instrument

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Would you rather be a theory or a nail?
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chapter 17|10 pages

3ie

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A ‘balloon-squeezing’ approach to the theory of change
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chapter 19|7 pages

Theories of change: Who needs them?

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Or: What evaluators can learn from opera
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chapter 20|6 pages

How to ensure no-one uses your theory of change

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Lessons from the front lines of theory of change facilitation and possibilities for renewal
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part 6|48 pages

Developing theories of change that reflect multiple stakeholder perspectives

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chapter 22|9 pages

Participatory explorations of alternative futures

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Using narrative theories of change
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chapter 23|9 pages

Constructing a living theory of change in fluid and volatile environments

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Grounded on context, problem, and evidence
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chapter 24|8 pages

Flipping the script on programme theories

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Advancing towards transformative theories of change
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part 7|10 pages

Conclusions around theories of change in reality

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