ABSTRACT
For over 50 years, evaluators have used theories of change to articulate the causal logic underpinning how an intervention is intended to bring about a desired change. From its origins in programme evaluation, the approach has been adopted more widely for purposes from program design to program management. As theories of change continue to be used for multiple purposes, it is an opportune moment for the evaluation community—where the approach originated—to provide their perspective on the strengths and limitations of the approach and its future directions. To provide these perspectives, we asked nearly 30 of the world’s leading evaluators and programme theorists to provide a short essay on the past, present, and future of theories of change. This book presents their insights organized into five main themes: the use of theories of change in broader public policy contexts; using theories of change to establish causality; developing theories of change reflective of multiple stakeholder perspectives; using theories of change to understand wider societal change processes; and applying theories of change approaches for multiple purposes. By sharing these diverse perspectives, the book aims to both provide evaluators and emerging programme theorists with critical perspectives to inform future practice.
The Open Access version of this book, available at www.taylorfrancis.com, has been made available under a Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives (CC-BY-NC-ND) 4.0 license.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
part 1|12 pages
Introduction
part 2|46 pages
Considerations in using theories of change to establish causality
chapter 5|10 pages
How deep is your ontology?
part 3|44 pages
Using theories of change to understand wider societal change processes
chapter 8|10 pages
Strategy-level theories of change require a focus on systems change
chapter 9|11 pages
Evaluating the use of artificial intelligence and big data in policy making
chapter 10|9 pages
Developing, representing, and using theories of change for interventions in complex systems
part 4|46 pages
Adapting theories of change for use in broader public policy contexts
chapter 12|10 pages
Theories of change and the evaluation of sustainable impact
chapter 13|7 pages
Use of theory of change as a management tool for government multiyear development plans
chapter 14|8 pages
Theories of change in complex macro public-sector planning settings in Africa
chapter 15|12 pages
Simple heuristics for drafting theories of change
part 5|48 pages
Applying theories of change approaches for multiple purposes
chapter 19|7 pages
Theories of change: Who needs them?
chapter 20|6 pages
How to ensure no-one uses your theory of change
chapter 21|7 pages
Why do we have theories of change of the programme intervention but not of the intervention that is the evaluation?
part 6|48 pages
Developing theories of change that reflect multiple stakeholder perspectives
chapter 22|9 pages
Participatory explorations of alternative futures
chapter 23|9 pages
Constructing a living theory of change in fluid and volatile environments
chapter 24|8 pages
Flipping the script on programme theories
chapter 26|10 pages
Theory of change as a tool for tracking Intensive Family Programme developments in Whitetown
part 7|10 pages
Conclusions around theories of change in reality
