ABSTRACT

According to equation (13), when ca > , the total population grows more quickly; while according to equation (14), when ca > , the total regional population grows slower. These two equations collide with each other. The inconsistency can be eliminated by two conditions: a=c or c=0. If a=c as given, then the total population will grow infi nitely in the exponential way predicted by Malthus (1798/1996); On the other, if c=0, the total population will stop growing when it increases to certain extent. Under the latter circumstance, according as equation (13), since the rural population ( ) 0→tr , the growth rate of the total population P(t) will gradually decrease to 0; According as equation (14), because the whole population will be completely urbanized, i.e., ( ) ( )tptu → , the growth rate of the total population will tend toward 0 ultimately. In the real world, we do have c=0, as will be illustrated in the following empirical analysis.