ABSTRACT

4The Iraq War has significantly altered the balance of power in the Gulf region and within the Arab world. It has also widened the gap between governments and publics in the region, increased the popularity of non-state actors, and resulted in an increase in terrorism and enhancement of al-Qaeda’s presence in the Arab world. But it has had little impact on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, and has not made al-Qaeda’s agenda more popular. The rise of Islamic militant groups in the region appears to be more an effect of both the Iraq War and local circumstances, not a reflection of a sweeping Islamist globalist ideology. The imbalance of power in the Gulf will become more evident if and when American troops withdraw from Iraq, although the presence of US forces elsewhere in the Gulf will remain a major factor.