ABSTRACT
The United States has already achieved all that it is going to achieve in Iraq; staying in the country can only drive up the price of these gains in blood, treasure and strategic position. Washington should therefore make clear now to the Iraqi government that, as the results of the anticipated surge become apparent, the two sides will be negotiating a US military disengagement from Iraq. This would entail withdrawing the bulk of American forces from Iraq within 12–18 months; shifting the American focus to containment of the conflict and strengthening the US military position elsewhere in the region; and engaging Iraq’s neighbours, including Iran and Syria, members of the UN Security Council and potential donors in an Iraq stabilisation plan. The civil war is unlikely to abate upon disengagement, but the lack of organisational capacity, broad communal consent, and heavy weapons on either side militates against a drastic increase in the casualty rate. The United States should act decisively and creatively across the wider Middle East to offset perceptions of American weakness triggered by the setback in Iraq. Full recovery from its misadventure in Iraq is likely to take the United States many years.
