Analysis and prediction of energy sustainability in the developed regions of China

ABSTRACT:   Energy, which accounts for two-thirds of today’s greenhouse gas emissions, is the key toward reducing greenhouse gas emissions and decelerating global warming. In this paper, the IPCC-recommended reference approach and scenario analysis are applied to evaluate the dynamic change in the energy supply and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions during the period of 1995–2010 in the Yangtze River Delta Region (YRDR). The results show that energy importing reliance reached 85% in 2010, and that the energy structure has become more diversified in the YRDR. In addition, the per capita CO₂ emission is significantly higher whereas the carbon intensity is lower than that of the national average. Under the Low Carbon (LC) scenario, CO₂ emissions will begin to fall for the first time in 2017. Hence, if energy-saving and emission-reduction strategy and regional planning for the YRDR are implemented thoroughly, the YRDR will achieve the national emission reduction targets by 2020 and will have a great CO₂ mitigation potential in the future.