ABSTRACT
This chapter shows how anticipatory scenario techniques can be used as practical tools of Adaptive collaborative management to enable forest stakeholders not only to respond to change, but also to be prepared to adapt to it. Scenario-based approaches are examined in the context of community-based forest management. Community-based forest management refers to common pool forests where the people living near them have significant rights and responsibilities for management. The chapter suggests that a more proactive stance to learning about potential changes should thus be an essential part of any adaptive community forest management process. Techniques related to the qualitative scenario method are emphasized, in recognition of the limited technical resources available in most community forest management settings. In community forest systems, key uncertainties often include natural calamities, land conversion, market fluctuations, the policy environment, and actions of competing users of the forest.
