ABSTRACT
In each of the first four years of this new century, world grain production has fallen short of consumption. The shortfalls in 2002 and 2003, the largest on record, and the smaller ones in 2000 and 2001 were covered by drawing down stocks. These four consecutive shortfalls in the world grain harvest have dropped stocks to their lowest level in 30 years. When there are no longer any stocks to draw down, the only option will be to reduce consumption. 1
