ABSTRACT
This chapter outlines the development of China-ASEAN relations1 in recent decades, discusses China’s weaknesses and the challenges that confront its ASEAN policy, and explains why it is not leading the way in the Asian regional integration and regional summits. I argue that the China-ASEAN relationship started from a very low base, and it has improved compared with what it was 15 or 10 years ago, but compared with ASEAN’s relations with other extra-regional powers, it is far from transforming the regional strategic balance. Although China has gained influence in Southeast Asia in recent years, ASEAN’s relations with other extraregional major powers remain robust. For the foreseeable future, China will lack the economic, social, and strategic bases to tip the balance. Should China’s goals remain modest, its relations with ASEAN are likely to remain vigorous. If it seeks to press too hard, however, it risks a strong backlash from not only ASEAN countries but also extra-regional powers.
