ABSTRACT
Southern Forests Today .................................................................................................................. 310 Common Tree Species............................................................................................................... 310 Threats to Forest Health ............................................................................................................ 311 Temperature versus Precipitation Effects .................................................................................. 311 Other Associated Studies........................................................................................................... 312
Methods, Models, and Data Sources .............................................................................................. 312 Climate Predictions ................................................................................................................... 313 Tree Species Distribution Effects .............................................................................................. 316 Forest Diversity Effects ............................................................................................................. 322
Coastal Plain .................................................................................................................................. 322 Climate Scenario Predictions .................................................................................................... 322 Effects on Tree Species Distribution in Coastal Plain Sections ................................................ 324 Forest Diversity Effects ............................................................................................................. 328
Piedmont ........................................................................................................................................ 330 Climate Scenario Predictions .................................................................................................... 331 Effects on Tree Species Distribution in the Piedmont Sections ................................................ 332 Forest Diversity Effects in the Piedmont Region ...................................................................... 336
Appalachian-Cumberland Highland .............................................................................................. 337 Climate Scenario Predictions .................................................................................................... 338 Effects on Tree Species Distribution in Appalachian-Cumberland Highland Sections ............ 339 Forest Diversity Effects ............................................................................................................. 343
Mississippi Alluvial Valley ............................................................................................................344 Climate Scenario Predictions ....................................................................................................346 Effects on Tree Species Distribution in Mississippi Alluvial Valley Sections .......................... 347 Forest Diversity Effects ............................................................................................................. 349
Mid-South ...................................................................................................................................... 350 Climate Scenario Predictions .................................................................................................... 350 Effects on Tree Species Distribution in Eastern Zone Sections of the Mid-South ................... 353 Effects on Tree Species Distribution in Western Zone Sections of the Mid-South ................... 354 Forest Diversity Effects ............................................................................................................. 356
The climate of the 13 Southern United States is generally thought to be changing in response to global and continental scale influences; and by 2060, average annual temperature is predicted to be higher and precipitation lower than for the year 2000, the date defined as current for the purposes of this analysis (Figure 10.1). Some southern forest species and communities may be highly vulnerable to the effects of changing climate, possibly resulting in conversion of woodland to savanna or grassland (Bosworth et al. 2008). In addition to the effects of temperature and precipitation on regeneration and growth, future forests will be affected by other factors contributing to climate change-such as carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions resulting from economic and population growth-and to length of growing season, insect pollinators, plant demography, and other environmental influences not addressed here.
