ABSTRACT
Introduction Will women of childbearing age bear enough children to reproduce themselves and sustain population stability or growth in the long term? This is a question faced by 75% of the world’s developed countries today and one that has serious social, political, and economic implications. Most post-transition developed countries, including the United States, have witnessed substantial declines in fertility over the past 40 years. The total fertility rate in many countries, such as Spain (1.2), Japan (1.5), and Germany (1.3), is well below replacement levels. And there are new forecasts that fertility declines have not yet bottomed out; indeed, they may fall below 1.0 in some countries (Golini, 1998). Others take a more cautious approach to alarmist rhetoric (Bongaarts, 2002; Morgan, 2003). Childbearing may be delayed but not forgone and delayed childbearing artificially places downward pressure on period fertility rates. Cohort fertility declines may therefore be much less extreme than period fertility declines (Bongaarts & Feeney, 1998). But such debates are mere distractions from the larger issue: Without significant increases in fertility or a massive infusion of immigrants, the current populations of many developed countries are not sustainable in the long term.
