Conclusion

Introduction In recent times, the Asia-Pacific region has borne the brunt of several major protracted inter-state conflicts. In fact, since the end of the Second World War, this region has suffered from one of the highest rates of inter-state rivalries in the world.1 All four of the conflicts discussed in this volume have a long history and have fluctuated in intensity between periods of significant bloodshed and relative inactivity. However, in spite of the volatile history shared by the conflicts discussed in this book, in recent years each conflict has been characterised by what can be described as a relatively stable stalemate. In each case, the disputants have learned to live with their rivalries and manage them within a sphere of relatively non-aggressive behaviour. As a result, perhaps with the exception of the Indo-Pakistan rivalry, the risk of a major flare-up in any of these cases appears unlikely in the immediate future. In spite of this, some of the fundamental issues at the heart of these conflicts remain unresolved and the absence of durable agreements remains a concern. Furthermore, each of these conflicts have exhibited a concerning tendency to evolve and diversify over time. The primary issue of contention on the Korean Peninsula is no longer ideological, but instead stems from concerns over how to manage an increasingly isolated and volatile state, which at times appears to be on the brink of collapse. The China-Taiwan rivalry has transformed from competition over the governance of China as a whole, and now centres around growing Taiwanese nationalism and the future status of the quasi-state. The Indo-Pakistan rivalry has taken a turn for the worse in recent years, and while the key issue remains the contested territory of Kashmir and Jammu, the incidence of terrorist attacks in both India and Pakistan add a frightening dimension to the conflict. In contrast, the Spratly Islands dispute seems to have stabilised over recent years, with China easing back its aggressive stance, however, again, the key territorial issues remain unresolved. In spite of their long histories, the rivalries discussed in this book remain at the forefront of threats to international peace and security. Given the size, military strength and nuclear status of the countries involved, a flare-up in any of these conflicts could well produce catastrophic consequences. For this reason, continuing to examine the evolution of these conflicts and their management

remains both relevant and contemporaneous. In this chapter, we will consider what we have learned about conflict management in this volatile part of the world. First, we will revisit each case on an individual basis and reconsider some of their main characteristics. Following this, we will consider some of the broader implications and trends applicable to conflict in this region.