ABSTRACT
This chapter sets forth the criteria by which the government system of the PRC can be evaluated and identifies the most probable scenarios for the future, assessing the likelihood that each will come to pass. It introduces the concepts of the trapped transition, state capacity, authoritarian resilience, and the “controlocracy.” It considers the argument that one party rule is incompatible with a market economy, which requires a democratic system, as well as the counterargument that one-party rule with limited market reforms is not only sustainable but the best path for China. Should the latter take place, the PRC may be said to have evolved a new variant of development that can fairly be called modernity with Chinese characteristics.
