ABSTRACT
This chapter shows that, in the cases of the People's Republic of China's attack on Vietnam on February 17, 1979, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan on December 27 of the same year, the leaders of both regimes did calculate before they acted; nonetheless, they stumbled in both cases. The relationship between mainland China and Vietnam had deteriorated long before mainland China launched a so-called counterattack in self-defense on Vietnam. The Chinese Communist leaders, aside from a few problems such as the possible Soviet military intervention, were confident of success in their "counterattack" on Vietnam. The "socialist revolution of April 1978," which brought the pro-Soviet People's Democratic Party to power in Kabul, greatly enhanced the Soviets' leverage in dealing with Afghanistan. The Soviet leadership must have taken into consideration the factors that might affect the chances of a successful military action.
