ABSTRACT
A new method of rockburst hazard assessment in underground mines is presented. The method is based on periodical monitoring of radial and axial deformations of boreholes located in the vicinity of active stopes, preferably in hard roof strata overlying the productive layer. Anomalous time changes of the deformations are considered as precursor to strong seismic events in the stope region. These time changes are quantified by an index that accounts for both the magnitude and rate of deformation. A retrospective analysis of the deformation and seismic data from a stope at 500 m depth in Mysłowice coal mine in Poland shows the efficiency of prediction. For certain combinations of adjustable parameters of the method the success rate of strong seismic events prediction from values of index significantly exceeds the 50 percent level of random guess.
