ABSTRACT

Earthquake risk assessment is characterised by uncertainty about the location and magnitude of future events. The losses which result from any particular event are a function of many parameters, including the regional hydrogeology, the distribution and vulnerability of building stock as well as the location of the epicentre. It can be seen that all the relevant parameters exhibit spatial variability. In this paper the spatial characteristics of a region (Cyprus) have been incorporated into a framework for the simulation of potential future event time-series. It is shown that the proposed framework provides a means of assessing and comparing various risk management strategies.