ABSTRACT
A method has been developed for the estimating of the numbers of deaths and injuries which can be expected to occur in urban earthquakes. The method is described through its application to a scenario earthquake of magnitude Mw = 7.5 located on the Wellington fault in New Zealand, which represents the 500 year earthquake for the city of Wellington. The majority of casualties are found to be concentrated in a relatively small number of buildings more than 25 years old, and the potential for reducing the risk to the population posed by these buildings is discussed.
