ABSTRACT
Engineering is concerned, among many other activities, with decision-making based on information and analysis combined with observation. Experience and engineering judgement play an important part in arriving at decisions on individual projects and in influencing possible changes to initial decisions based on performance during or after construction. Alternatively, changes to decisions may also result from the availability of additional or more reliable information. Analysis of information and the analysis of engineering behaviour are important steps in any significant project and traditionally a deterministic framework has been considered to be satisfactory for such analyses. Concepts of statistics and probability have been used from time to time but, as a formal basis for analysis, the use of probabilistic framework has been advocated only in the last few decades. It is interesting to note, however, that a significant number of engineers continue to work within a deterministic framework. There is considerable scepticism among some engineers about the value of probabilistic approaches in practice although, among others, there is an increasing recognition of the need for the development of new methods of analysis to supplement traditional methods.
