ABSTRACT
From the viewpoint of earthquake engineering one of the most poignant aspects of the two catastrophic earthquakes of 1999 was the measurement of two strong ground motions within three months at the same location in Duzce, Turkey. Both events caused notable structural damage in Duzce. The paper considers the simple question, “After the damage in Duzce associated with the first event (August 1999) was observed, if one were given the strong motion record for the next earthquake in Duzce, could one have anticipated the magnitude of the ensuing additional damage?” The paper contains several procedures by which this could not be done satisfactorily. In this instance, ex post facto methodologies were found to be more reliable as they have been in many other cases.
