ABSTRACT
The World Economic Forum, an authority in current macroeconomic affairs, identified four emerging global risks: Hyper-optimization and supply chain vulnerability, in addition to energy supply security were two of them (WEF 2008). Integration of regional economies has come as a result of reduction in trade barriers and improvement in global logistics and technology. A result is that international and intra-regional trade growth rate has surpassed the global economy growth rate over the last twenty years. The above mentioned report asserts that effective preparation and management of supply chains may prevent contagion of a localized risk event: lack of sufficient preparation may amplify the disruptive impacts of events far beyond the corporate sector. In particular, this is relevant in energy supply. Nevertheless, risks in long and complex supply chains are obscured by the sheer amount of risk sources and the number of stakeholders within and outside of the system; management and preparation are therefore difficult, and may demand substantial resources. The 2009 report upholds the warning: “Risk management must also account for interlinkages and remote possibilities. Low-probability, high-severity events, such as the terrorist attacks of 9/11, the Asia tsunami of 2004 and the current global credit crisis do happen” (WEF 2009).
