ABSTRACT

Direct Determined Fully Probabilistic Method can be used now to solve a number of probabilistic computations and is based on general terms and procedures used in probabilistic theories. The random nature of quantities entering the probabilistic calculation is often expressed by the histogram created on the basis of monitoring and, frequently long-lasting measurements. The individual random variables are multiplied, divided, added, or subtracted. Sometimes, more complicated operations are needed. The needed random variable operations are expressed in bounded parametric or non-parametric histograms (empirical distributions). If general principles of the probabilistic theory are taken into account, the operations can be carried out directly and deterministically. It is possible to use any histogram expressing any random variable that enters the calculation (Fig.1). Those histograms are used then to assess the reliability of structures by the probability of failure Pf .