ABSTRACT
It is increasing recognized by decision makers that efficient management and consistent quantification of risks associated with large dams is an issue of societal concern. The book entitled Risk and Uncertainty in Dam Safety provides details of the analysis methods available to characterize and quantify the risks and uncertainties in dam safety (Hartford and Baecher 2004). The reliability and risk of dams has been extensively studied in the literature. For example, Benjamin (1983) explored the application of statistical decision theory to the dams and levees. Lave and Balvanyos (1998) studied the risk analysis and risk management using benefit-cost analysis. In recent years, Bayesian network (BN) (Jensen 1996; Jensen 2000) has received considerable interest for risk assessments and as a decision support tool for technical systems. For instance, Friis-Hansen (2001) explored the application of BN on marine structures. Faber et al. (2002) studied the risk assessment of decommissioning options using BN. Bayraktarli et al. (2005) proposed a framework for the assessment and management of earthquake risks based on BN, where optimal risk mitigation actions are identified based on indicators. Holichy (2005) developed a BN for fire safety design situations. Straub (2005) explored the application of BN for natural hazards risk assessment.
