ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: A quantitative risk analysis framework for infrastructure management is introduced to address multi-hazards. The underlying methodology is intended to assist decision and policy makers, and has the characteristics of being analytic, quantitative and probabilistic. A hazard is quantified using a probabilistic framework to obtain hazard intensity exceedance rates, such as flood elevation exceedance rate, and the risk is quantified in the form of loss exceedance rates that are based on a spectrum of hazards. Two cases studies are used to illustrate the framework: a protection system of hurricane-prone region, and security protection of infrastructure. Hurricanes are generated using a joint probability distribution of the parameters that define hurricane intensity, and human-caused hazards are selected to demonstrate the methodology. The proposed methodology will enable decision makers to evaluate alternatives for managing risk, such as providing increased hurricane protection, increasing evacuation effectiveness, changing land-use policy, enhancing hurricane protection system operations, enhancing preparedness for the case of natural hazards, providing secure perimeter, reducing vulnerabilities, reducing threats, and/or enhancing consequence mitigation to simultaneously address multiple hazards.
