ABSTRACT
ABSTRACT: The objective of this study is to conduct an empirical analysis of long-range modal split trends (1986-2001) in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) for the morning peak period (6-9 am) with examination of underlying factors. Furthermore, network service characteristics (travel times) were examined and results from both analyses were compared. The analysis revealed a widespread trend of declining transit modal shares in the GTA. Upon analysis of travel-related factors, certain factors such as population aging and the rapid growth of auto-dependent suburbs account in part for this trend. However, further analysis of mode split changes revealed persistent reductions in transit modal shares despite accounting for those 2 factors. The study of travel time data generated in EMME/2 showed that auto travel times have deteriorated at a faster pace than transit travel times, with severe traffic congestion a prevalent phenomenon in recent years. The effects of congestion are substantiated with evidence of peak spreading.
