ABSTRACT
One of the possible predictive approaches with neural networks has tried to combine observed past movement data and climatic information to predict future movements. The consideration of predicted climate change conditions in the hydrogeological and geomechanical modelling of a large landslide allows the assessment of its future behaviour in case of crisis. The effect of the hydraulic head variation with time, as determined by the hydrogeological modelling, on the mechanical behaviour of the whole slide, has been modelled by a FE code, Z-SOIL, using a Biot-type formulation, implying the conservation of mass and momentum of both fluid and solid phases. Considering the impact on landslides, such a scenario is not obviously more severe, mainly for the landslide zones in altitude. Indeed, besides the total infiltration, the groundwater pressure fluctuations have a major effect on the movements. The analysis of several large landslides in other contexts shows that the effect of climate changes on landslides.
