ABSTRACT

For the rational study of law the blackletter man may be the man of the present, but the man of the future is the man of statistics and the master of economics. Various methodologies have been adopted by researchers to study lay comprehension of statistical statements. In the broadest terms these studies involve the recruitment of a sample of participants who are then presented with an expert opinion from a forensic scientist incorporating the focal statistical statement. Sensitivity is defined by Thompson and Newman, in terms of responsiveness to evidence strength. Holding all else constant, the ability to assign greater weight to evidence of objectively greater strength is an important indicator of understanding. Consideration has also been given to the lay ability to correctly combine and evaluate statistical elements of forensic science evidence such as the random match probability and laboratory error rates.