ABSTRACT
Sustainable development is defined as “integrated strategies that would halt and reverse the negative impact of human behavior on physical environment and allow for livable conditions for future generations on Earth” (UNCED 1992). The concept of sustainable development resulted in Agenda 21, developed at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, which presents a blueprint for development of humanity in the 21st century agreed upon by a majority of countries on earth. The majority of human societies (countries) are not sustainable, since they are highly dependent on fossil fuels and nonrenewable resources which are being rapidly depleted .
Environmentalists often dispute the causes of global environmental degradation. Some blame it on population growth [P] in developing countries (SOUTH), some on unbridled consumption [C] in developed countries (NORTH), and some on the polluting technology [T] and low energy efficiency (EAST and SOUTH) and/or large consumption of energy (NORTH) [E]. In reality, all of the four factors are important contributors, and modified Ehrlich’ equation can be written as Environmental Impact ( EI ) = P × C × T × E https://s3-euw1-ap-pe-df-pch-content-public-p.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/9780367803056/c2eb2a5e-db2f-4863-b47c-2eb94fcd5f6c/content/eq45.tif"/>
where P = population, C = consumption, T = technology, and E = energy consumption (E). (This is qualitative and not an exact mathematical expression.)
The importance of each factor in any locality varies. Western Europe and North America contribute mostly to consumption and energy use [C and E], while in 408developing countries the major factors are population (P) and polluting technology (T) (in those countries that are attempting to industrialize). Also, often, the energy efficiency is very poor (China and the former USSR), even though useful energy consumption per person may be small. Countries of the former USSR and Eastern Europe have stable and limited populations, and consumption is also low. However, their outdated technology and poor energy efficiency (T and E) are major contributors to the tremendous environmental degradation of Eastern Europe uncovered after the fall of communism.
In order to deal with the environmental impacts of human activities and of development, one needs first to evaluate the problems. Risk analysis can help evaluate the problems resulting from improper industrial management, transport, and energy management; consider the proposed solutions; and establish better management strategies that would promote sustainable development. Decision- and policy-makers (businesses, governments) and the “doers” (engineers, architects, city planners, etc.) could perform risk analysis before they make investments and execute projects with a potentially high environmental impact. Comparing various options of risk management would result in the most reasonable solutions. In addition, properly performed and documented risk analysis may uncover hidden agendas of various interest groups and thus promote democratization within a frame of sustainable development. It is important that the decisions about such policies and developments are made at the local or national level where people will benefit (or be harmed) by such decisions, rather than by remote decision-makers whose sole motivation is short-term gain, and who will not suffer from the consequences of their decisions should anything go wrong.
